Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium · 68° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Michigan State–Notre Dame) | 12–45 | – | 10–27 |
| Spread | Notre Dame −33.2 | Notre Dame −28.5 | Notre Dame −17 |
| Total | 57.0 | 51.5 | 37 |
| Notre Dame win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from Notre Dame −29.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Notre Dame −28.5 Lost★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 4.7 pts better than Vegas for Notre Dame (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 5.5 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Notre Dame by 33.20%
Michigan State by 14+
2%
Michigan State by 1–13
10%
Notre Dame by 1–13
88%
Notre Dame by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Michigan State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.037 #81 | Offense EPA / play | +0.237 #3 |
| +0.095 #97 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.208 #4 |
| +1.1% #58 | Offense success rate | +9.0% #4 |
| +2.1% #82 | Defense success rate allowed | −8.7% #4 |
| −0.029 #96 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.187 #11 |
| −0.074 #86 | Passing EPA / play | +0.240 #7 |
| +0.140 #123 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.214 #4 |
| +0.025 #66 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.183 #9 |
| −1.7 #65 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +15.3 #1 |
| −1.2 #56 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.9 #7 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.4% #87 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.6% #25 |
| +3.5% #108 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.2% #10 |
| −0.23 #69 | Points per drive | +2.60 #3 |
| −0.17 #49 | Points per drive allowed | −1.04 #10 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.14 #60 | Line yards per rush | +0.14 #59 |
| +0.04 #69 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.41 #12 |
| −1.9% #71 | Runs stuffed at the line | −7.3% #2 |
| +2.5% #36 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.1% #42 |
| −1.8% #56 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #23 |
| +0.8% #40 | Havoc created | +4.0% #6 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.101 #112 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.062 #47 |
| +0.022 #99 | Passing explosiveness | −0.054 #121 |
| −0.31 #89 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.10 #60 |
| +0.044 #85 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.235 #6 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #36 | Run rate | 53% #101 |
| −9.6 #62 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.7 #53 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Michigan State | Season to date | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 18.2 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 41.2 / 11.8 |
| -5.0 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.9 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
Michigan State: last 2 games
| W35-7 | |
| W30-20 |
