Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:15 PM ET
Husky Stadium · 64° · wind 2 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (EWU–Washington) | 9–50 | – | 16–48 |
| Spread | Washington −41.6 | Washington −42.5 | Washington −32 |
| Total | 58.8 | 58.5 | 64 |
| Washington win chance | 99% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ EWU +42.5 Won★ Over 58.5 Won
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for Eastern Washington (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Washington by 41.60%
Eastern Washington by 14+
0%
Eastern Washington by 1–13
4%
Washington by 1–13
95%
Washington by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| EWU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.215 | Offense EPA / play | −0.028 #74 |
| +0.268 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.062 #22 |
| −10.5% | Offense success rate | +1.8% #39 |
| +15.3% | Defense success rate allowed | −2.1% #22 |
| −0.229 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.068 #92 |
| −0.174 | Passing EPA / play | −0.024 #70 |
| +0.287 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.023 #40 |
| +0.267 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.091 #22 |
| −12.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.0 #68 |
| +16.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.7 #21 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.6% #126 |
| +6.8% | Passing-down success allowed | −2.1% #34 |
| −2.19 | Points per drive | −0.10 #58 |
| +2.10 | Points per drive allowed | +0.01 #32 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.09 | Line yards per rush | −0.22 #89 |
| +0.78 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.06 #48 |
| +8.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.7% #116 |
| −6.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | +6.5% #4 |
| +1.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.1% #40 |
| −2.3% | Havoc created | +3.7% #9 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.073 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.093 #107 |
| −0.116 | Passing explosiveness | −0.217 #134 |
| −0.54 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.47 #123 |
| −0.085 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.067 #48 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% | Run rate | 49% #106 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.6 #51 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| EWU | Season to date | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 16.0 / 48.0 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 18.4 |
| -32.0 | Avg margin | +8.2 |
| +10.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -11.7 |
| 72.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.6 |
Eastern Washington: last games
No games yet.
Washington: last 2 games
| W16-14 | |
| W24-10 |
