Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Michigan Stadium · 69° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Iowa–Michigan) | 21–21 | – | 20–19 |
| Spread | Michigan −0.2 | Michigan −4.5 | Iowa −1 |
| Total | 41.5 | 39.5 | 39 |
| Michigan win chance | 50% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Iowa +4.5 Won★ Over 39.5 Lost
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for Iowa (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.0 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Michigan by 0.218%
Iowa by 14+
32%
Iowa by 1–13
32%
Michigan by 1–13
19%
Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Iowa | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.051 #40 | Offense EPA / play | +0.044 #43 |
| −0.086 #12 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.071 #16 |
| +2.8% #31 | Offense success rate | +0.3% #56 |
| −7.0% #5 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.5% #23 |
| +0.110 #18 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.070 #27 |
| +0.006 #58 | Passing EPA / play | +0.000 #63 |
| −0.097 #16 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.020 #38 |
| −0.046 #39 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.207 #6 |
| +1.8 #46 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.2 #61 |
| −10.0 #6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.3 #14 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.6% #111 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.8% #26 |
| −3.3% #21 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.9% #18 |
| +0.45 #35 | Points per drive | −0.03 #62 |
| −0.69 #6 | Points per drive allowed | −0.39 #15 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.34 #10 | Line yards per rush | +0.17 #20 |
| −0.25 #18 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.08 #62 |
| −2.6% #19 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.2% #6 |
| +4.3% #11 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.0% #46 |
| −4.1% #8 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.5% #78 |
| +1.0% #40 | Havoc created | +1.6% #28 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.145 #15 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.003 #64 |
| −0.278 #136 | Passing explosiveness | +0.082 #38 |
| +0.67 #7 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.21 #84 |
| +0.045 #96 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.027 #69 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #44 | Run rate | 55% #38 |
| −15.0 #97 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.1 #26 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Iowa | Season to date | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 29.0 / 12.6 | Points for / against | 23.0 / 15.8 |
| +16.4 | Avg margin | +7.2 |
| +3.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.3 |
| 50.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
Iowa: last 3 games
| W55-0 | |
| W16-13 | |
| W40-0 |
Michigan: last 3 games
| W52-17 | |
| W17-10 | |
| W13-12 |
