Final
Sat, Sep 26, 2:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium · 71° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Notre Dame–Purdue) | 43–18 | – | 49–10 |
| Spread | Notre Dame −25.8 | Notre Dame −27.5 | Notre Dame −39 |
| Total | 61.0 | 57.5 | 59 |
| Purdue win chance | 6% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Purdue +27.5 Lost★ Over 57.5 Won
Spread: 1.7 pts better than Vegas for Purdue (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Notre Dame by 25.876%
Notre Dame by 14+
18%
Notre Dame by 1–13
5%
Purdue by 1–13
1%
Purdue by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Notre Dame | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.185 #9 | Offense EPA / play | +0.098 #24 |
| −0.189 #4 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.169 #124 |
| +8.0% #7 | Offense success rate | +2.7% #34 |
| −7.4% #4 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.2% #113 |
| +0.075 #24 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.004 #61 |
| +0.258 #6 | Passing EPA / play | +0.205 #15 |
| −0.149 #8 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.146 #112 |
| −0.217 #4 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.159 #106 |
| +13.0 #7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.0 #38 |
| −10.8 #4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +9.0 #119 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.5% #61 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.3% #41 |
| −6.7% #5 | Passing-down success allowed | +10.5% #133 |
| +2.31 #4 | Points per drive | +0.38 #37 |
| −0.83 #4 | Points per drive allowed | +1.48 #121 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.01 #50 | Line yards per rush | −0.08 #63 |
| −0.43 #9 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.26 #94 |
| −2.5% #20 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.4% #43 |
| +3.0% #24 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.8% #84 |
| −3.7% #9 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.4% #38 |
| +6.8% #1 | Havoc created | −1.6% #93 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.099 #110 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.067 #95 |
| −0.086 #102 | Passing explosiveness | +0.055 #50 |
| −0.46 #119 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.45 #117 |
| −0.221 #10 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.063 #106 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #68 | Run rate | 49% #101 |
| −3.7 #29 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.4 #51 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Notre Dame | Season to date | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 41.2 / 11.8 | Points for / against | 30.4 / 35.0 |
| +29.4 | Avg margin | -4.6 |
| +0.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.1 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.4 |
Notre Dame: last 3 games
| W27-10 | |
| W52-0 | |
| W41-13 |
Purdue: last 3 games
| L38-52 | |
| L36-38 | |
| W44-19 |
