Final
Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · 74° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Maryland–Nebraska) | 19–36 | – | 23–48 |
| Spread | Nebraska −16.6 | Nebraska −15.5 | Nebraska −25 |
| Total | 55.3 | 52.5 | 71 |
| Nebraska win chance | 85% | – | – |
Line moved from Nebraska −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Nebraska −15.5 Won★ Over 52.5 Won
Spread: 1.1 pts better than Vegas for Nebraska (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nebraska by 16.63%
Maryland by 14+
12%
Maryland by 1–13
28%
Nebraska by 1–13
56%
Nebraska by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Maryland | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.040 #80 | Offense EPA / play | +0.142 #17 |
| +0.010 #56 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.028 #40 |
| −1.0% #69 | Offense success rate | +3.2% #31 |
| +1.0% #56 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.6% #46 |
| −0.060 #86 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.138 #10 |
| −0.092 #90 | Passing EPA / play | +0.124 #30 |
| −0.071 #19 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.004 #49 |
| +0.077 #79 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.117 #22 |
| −1.8 #73 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +7.0 #20 |
| +3.4 #82 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.2 #25 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.4% #47 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +8.1% #7 |
| +5.7% #108 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.6% #13 |
| −0.04 #64 | Points per drive | +1.02 #20 |
| +1.03 #101 | Points per drive allowed | +0.05 #39 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #98 | Line yards per rush | +0.17 #27 |
| −0.32 #17 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.00 #50 |
| +3.6% #110 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #30 |
| +2.5% #28 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.5% #49 |
| −0.2% #60 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.3% #26 |
| −1.4% #95 | Havoc created | +2.3% #21 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.074 #37 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.166 #11 |
| −0.091 #105 | Passing explosiveness | +0.063 #50 |
| +0.11 #38 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.17 #32 |
| −0.043 #65 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.053 #60 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 40% #137 | Run rate | 54% #41 |
| −11.8 #87 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.7 #106 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Maryland | Season to date | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 4-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 30.4 / 30.2 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 14.2 |
| +0.2 | Avg margin | +29.4 |
| -7.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +8.8 |
| 56.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Maryland: last 4 games
| L3-54 | |
| L26-35 | |
| W38-14 | |
| W62-0 |
Nebraska: last 4 games
| W31-13 | |
| W34-7 | |
| W56-7 | |
| W49-21 |
