Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Maverik Stadium · 82° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Idaho State–Utah State) | 18–44 | – | 29–17 |
| Spread | Utah State −26.5 | Utah State −15.5 | Idaho State −12 |
| Total | 61.9 | 59.5 | 46 |
| Utah State win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from Utah State −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Utah State −15.5 Lost★ Over 59.5 Lost
Spread: 11.0 pts better than Vegas for Utah State (sides with a gap this size have won 46% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Utah State by 26.51%
Idaho State by 14+
5%
Idaho State by 1–13
17%
Utah State by 1–13
78%
Utah State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Idaho State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.195 | Offense EPA / play | −0.027 #72 |
| +0.263 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.091 #91 |
| −6.6% | Offense success rate | −2.6% #91 |
| +12.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.8% #90 |
| −0.217 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.030 #71 |
| −0.180 | Passing EPA / play | −0.020 #69 |
| +0.222 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.099 #111 |
| +0.304 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.059 #69 |
| −10.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −0.1 #60 |
| +14.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.4 #91 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.9% #68 |
| +9.1% | Passing-down success allowed | +3.0% #90 |
| −1.31 | Points per drive | −0.32 #81 |
| +2.43 | Points per drive allowed | +0.78 #80 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.71 | Line yards per rush | −0.25 #95 |
| +0.71 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #104 |
| +8.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.3% #98 |
| −5.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.8% #90 |
| −1.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #58 |
| −8.0% | Havoc created | −2.6% #118 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.055 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.010 #73 |
| −0.034 | Passing explosiveness | +0.029 #40 |
| −0.59 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.04 #52 |
| −0.078 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.063 #18 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% | Run rate | 50% #90 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Idaho State | Season to date | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-3 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 29.0 / 17.0 | Points for / against | 14.0 / 25.0 |
| +12.0 | Avg margin | -11.0 |
| +27.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.4 |
Idaho State: last games
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Utah State: last games
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