Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium · 73° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Southern Utah–Colorado State) | 19–43 | – | 24–58 |
| Spread | Colorado State −23.9 | Colorado State −19.5 | Colorado State −34 |
| Total | 61.8 | 57.5 | 82 |
| Colorado State win chance | 93% | – | – |
Line moved from Colorado State −20.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Colorado State −19.5 Won★ Over 57.5 Won
Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for Colorado State (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.3 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Colorado State by 23.91%
Southern Utah by 14+
6%
Southern Utah by 1–13
20%
Colorado State by 1–13
73%
Colorado State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Southern Utah | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.107 | Offense EPA / play | −0.022 #70 |
| +0.244 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.054 #77 |
| −2.2% | Offense success rate | −0.3% #65 |
| +9.2% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.2% #116 |
| −0.018 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.035 #104 |
| −0.077 | Passing EPA / play | −0.012 #60 |
| +0.229 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.080 #107 |
| +0.211 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.097 #90 |
| −5.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.5 #86 |
| +13.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.9 #97 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.4% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.1% #64 |
| +9.1% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.8% #86 |
| −1.66 | Points per drive | −0.57 #93 |
| +1.35 | Points per drive allowed | +0.34 #89 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.10 | Line yards per rush | −0.19 #122 |
| +0.67 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.31 #122 |
| +4.4% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.1% #117 |
| +0.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.0% #123 |
| −0.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.4% #104 |
| +1.3% | Havoc created | +0.6% #43 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.259 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.050 #101 |
| +0.047 | Passing explosiveness | +0.094 #75 |
| +0.29 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.26 #89 |
| +0.296 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.092 #29 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 66% | Run rate | 53% #102 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.1 #81 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Southern Utah | Season to date | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 24.0 / 58.0 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 38.6 |
| -34.0 | Avg margin | -1.2 |
| -14.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 66.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.8 |
Southern Utah: last games
No games yet.
Colorado State: last 1 games
| W35-13 |
