Final
Sat, Sep 19, 11:00 PM ET
Reser Stadium · 58° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Montana–Oregon State) | 19–39 | – | 17–52 |
| Spread | Oregon State −20.2 | Oregon State −17.5 | Oregon State −35 |
| Total | 58.1 | 55.5 | 69 |
| Oregon State win chance | 89% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Oregon State −17.5 Won★ Over 55.5 Won
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for Oregon State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon State by 20.22%
Montana by 14+
9%
Montana by 1–13
24%
Oregon State by 1–13
65%
Oregon State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Montana | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.120 | Offense EPA / play | +0.021 #50 |
| +0.246 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.102 #103 |
| −6.4% | Offense success rate | −1.8% #84 |
| +9.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.1% #71 |
| −0.096 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.061 #113 |
| −0.117 | Passing EPA / play | +0.003 #54 |
| +0.140 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.078 #101 |
| +0.280 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.095 #90 |
| −8.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.4 #95 |
| +9.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.4 #91 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.5% #81 |
| +7.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.3% #90 |
| −1.83 | Points per drive | −0.92 #110 |
| +1.31 | Points per drive allowed | −0.29 #41 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.61 | Line yards per rush | +0.20 #47 |
| +0.63 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.07 #77 |
| +7.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | −8.0% #1 |
| −1.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.8% #83 |
| +0.5% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.6% #64 |
| −5.5% | Havoc created | +0.2% #51 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.102 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.076 #109 |
| +0.024 | Passing explosiveness | +0.329 #15 |
| +0.00 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #108 |
| +0.075 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.010 #66 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% | Run rate | 47% #133 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +6.6 #6 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Montana | Season to date | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 17.0 / 52.0 | Points for / against | 37.0 / 23.6 |
| -35.0 | Avg margin | +13.4 |
| -17.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +15.5 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
Montana: last games
No games yet.
Oregon State: last 2 games
| L24-35 | |
| L20-33 |
