Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
Gesa Field · 73° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Duquesne–WSU) | 5–48 | – | 7–48 |
| Spread | WSU −42.8 | WSU −38.5 | WSU −41 |
| Total | 53.8 | 51.5 | 55 |
| Washington State win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from WSU −37.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WSU −38.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for Washington State (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WSU by 42.80%
Duquesne by 14+
0%
Duquesne by 1–13
3%
Washington State by 1–13
96%
Washington State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Duquesne | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | WSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.300 | Offense EPA / play | −0.111 #110 |
| +0.397 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.019 #54 |
| −14.2% | Offense success rate | −4.3% #100 |
| +15.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.5% #80 |
| −0.203 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.085 #100 |
| −0.377 | Passing EPA / play | −0.208 #128 |
| +0.371 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.104 #101 |
| +0.165 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.046 #35 |
| −21.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.4 #116 |
| +24.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #51 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.8% #131 |
| +10.4% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.4% #77 |
| −2.50 | Points per drive | −0.82 #103 |
| +3.97 | Points per drive allowed | −0.06 #27 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.64 | Line yards per rush | −0.02 #53 |
| +1.09 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.19 #81 |
| +5.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.7% #65 |
| −9.8% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #72 |
| +5.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.8% #132 |
| −5.9% | Havoc created | −2.6% #111 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.010 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.025 #56 |
| −0.077 | Passing explosiveness | −0.295 #137 |
| −0.31 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #113 |
| −0.285 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.087 #39 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% | Run rate | 52% #64 |
| −18.3 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +5.4 #8 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Duquesne | Season to date | WSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 3.5 / 41.0 | Points for / against | 19.0 / 25.0 |
| -37.5 | Avg margin | -6.0 |
| -2.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.7 |
| 37.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.2 |
Duquesne: last 1 games
| L0-34 |
Washington State: last 2 games
| L7-34 | |
| L10-24 |
