Final
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl · 74° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oregon State–UTEP) | 34–26 | – | 33–7 |
| Spread | Oregon State −7.8 | Oregon State −11.5 | Oregon State −26 |
| Total | 59.7 | 56.5 | 40 |
| UTEP win chance | 32% | – | – |
Line moved from Oregon State −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTEP +11.5 Lost★ Over 56.5 Lost
Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for UTEP (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon State by 7.835%
Oregon State by 14+
33%
Oregon State by 1–13
23%
UTEP by 1–13
9%
UTEP by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oregon State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.023 #53 | Offense EPA / play | −0.174 #131 |
| +0.049 #82 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.162 #131 |
| −2.8% #97 | Offense success rate | −3.9% #108 |
| −0.9% #51 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.9% #133 |
| −0.110 #124 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.164 #136 |
| +0.016 #45 | Passing EPA / play | −0.056 #80 |
| +0.040 #82 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.059 #95 |
| +0.026 #63 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.359 #135 |
| −1.1 #70 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.2 #102 |
| +3.4 #88 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +13.6 #137 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.4% #94 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −7.7% #120 |
| +0.9% #77 | Passing-down success allowed | +10.4% #135 |
| +0.13 #50 | Points per drive | −0.60 #93 |
| +0.16 #77 | Points per drive allowed | +2.57 #137 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.02 #84 | Line yards per rush | −0.42 #131 |
| +0.08 #78 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #90 |
| −6.6% #6 | Runs stuffed at the line | +7.0% #137 |
| −3.3% #117 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.5% #39 |
| −1.3% #74 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.8% #135 |
| +0.2% #56 | Havoc created | −3.0% #122 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.131 #122 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.006 #70 |
| +0.327 #15 | Passing explosiveness | +0.188 #38 |
| −0.44 #116 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.22 #83 |
| −0.022 #55 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.007 #61 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% #135 | Run rate | 57% #48 |
| −2.3 #29 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.9 #65 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oregon State | Season to date | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 37.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 16.4 / 41.4 |
| +13.4 | Avg margin | -25.0 |
| +15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.5 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 36.6 |
Oregon State: last 3 games
| W52-17 | |
| L24-35 | |
| L20-33 |
UTEP: last 3 games
| L17-52 | |
| W51-10 | |
| L0-51 |
