Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium · 89° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (The Citadel–Charlotte) | 15–35 | – | 43–41 |
| Spread | Charlotte −19.8 | Charlotte −20.5 | The Citadel −2 |
| Total | 49.4 | 49.5 | 84 |
| Charlotte win chance | 89% | – | – |
Line moved from Charlotte −15.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ The Citadel +20.5 Won★ Under 49.5 Lost
Spread: 0.7 pts better than Vegas for The Citadel (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Charlotte by 19.82%
The Citadel by 14+
9%
The Citadel by 1–13
25%
Charlotte by 1–13
64%
Charlotte by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| The Citadel | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.248 | Offense EPA / play | −0.179 #137 |
| +0.324 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.132 #116 |
| −12.7% | Offense success rate | −7.9% #135 |
| +14.4% | Defense success rate allowed | +9.1% #136 |
| −0.227 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.194 #138 |
| −0.185 | Passing EPA / play | −0.146 #130 |
| +0.234 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.126 #126 |
| +0.370 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.135 #116 |
| −19.5 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −11.3 #137 |
| +15.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.3 #132 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.5% #123 |
| +11.6% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.3% #127 |
| −2.35 | Points per drive | −1.13 #133 |
| +2.91 | Points per drive allowed | +1.55 #128 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.81 | Line yards per rush | −0.64 #138 |
| +0.64 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.37 #131 |
| +6.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | +5.3% #137 |
| −4.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.6% #130 |
| −0.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.6% #132 |
| −7.7% | Havoc created | −3.5% #130 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.041 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.046 #138 |
| +0.156 | Passing explosiveness | +0.027 #43 |
| −0.54 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.38 #132 |
| −0.025 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.067 #15 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 71% | Run rate | 50% #102 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| The Citadel | Season to date | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | Record | 0-5 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 0-3 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 43.0 / 41.0 | Points for / against | 17.2 / 40.6 |
| +2.0 | Avg margin | -23.4 |
| +22.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -9.7 |
| 61.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 51.0 |
The Citadel: last games
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Charlotte: last games
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