Final
Sat, Sep 5, 3:30 PM ET
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · 78° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Towson–Navy) | 13–41 | – | 15–42 |
| Spread | Navy −27.8 | Navy −31.5 | Navy −27 |
| Total | 53.4 | 50.5 | 57 |
| Navy win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Navy −30.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Towson +31.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for Towson (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Navy by 27.80%
Towson by 14+
4%
Towson by 1–13
15%
Navy by 1–13
81%
Navy by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Towson | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.212 | Offense EPA / play | −0.049 #88 |
| +0.266 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.123 #129 |
| −10.1% | Offense success rate | −0.4% #70 |
| +13.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.1% #106 |
| −0.247 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.073 #33 |
| −0.201 | Passing EPA / play | −0.119 #119 |
| +0.184 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.081 #117 |
| +0.341 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.227 #136 |
| −18.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.8 #115 |
| +13.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.9 #94 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.7% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.1% #128 |
| +13.1% | Passing-down success allowed | +3.2% #125 |
| −1.97 | Points per drive | −0.58 #107 |
| +1.88 | Points per drive allowed | +0.59 #106 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.37 | Line yards per rush | +0.26 #24 |
| +0.57 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.10 #95 |
| +0.7% | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.9% #1 |
| −4.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.4% #111 |
| −2.7% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −5.0% #3 |
| −10.0% | Havoc created | −2.6% #132 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.363 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.050 #7 |
| +0.213 | Passing explosiveness | +0.462 #3 |
| −1.05 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.30 #120 |
| −0.108 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.008 #72 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 83% #3 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Towson | Season to date | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-0 | Against the spread | 0-4 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 12.0 / 43.5 | Points for / against | 25.2 / 22.8 |
| -31.5 | Avg margin | +2.5 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.5 |
| 62.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.8 |
Towson: last games
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