Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Rice Stadium · 82° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (HCU–Rice) | 13–40 | – | 3–31 |
| Spread | Rice −27.5 | Rice −22.5 | Rice −28 |
| Total | 53.0 | 47.5 | 34 |
| Rice win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Rice −24.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Rice −22.5 Won★ Over 47.5 Lost
Spread: 5.0 pts better than Vegas for Rice (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 5.5 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Rice by 27.50%
Houston Christian by 14+
4%
Houston Christian by 1–13
16%
Rice by 1–13
80%
Rice by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| HCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.295 | Offense EPA / play | −0.098 #124 |
| +0.203 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.106 #118 |
| −15.6% | Offense success rate | −4.9% #128 |
| +10.4% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.3% #80 |
| −0.243 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.031 #113 |
| −0.242 | Passing EPA / play | −0.118 #118 |
| +0.147 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.069 #109 |
| +0.326 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.132 #116 |
| −18.6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.9 #125 |
| +18.0 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.5 #111 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.0% #126 |
| +6.5% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.4% #109 |
| −2.60 | Points per drive | −0.77 #123 |
| +2.27 | Points per drive allowed | +0.77 #120 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.56 | Line yards per rush | −0.09 #125 |
| +0.42 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.12 #103 |
| +2.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.4% #112 |
| −6.1% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.1% #101 |
| −2.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.1% #124 |
| −8.3% | Havoc created | −1.4% #103 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.039 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.030 #29 |
| +0.169 | Passing explosiveness | +0.183 #15 |
| −0.92 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.25 #108 |
| −0.158 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.089 #135 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% | Run rate | 70% #4 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| HCU | Season to date | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 8.5 / 47.0 | Points for / against | 18.0 / 27.4 |
| -38.5 | Avg margin | -9.4 |
| -8.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.5 |
| 53.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
Houston Christian: last games
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Rice: last games
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