Final
Sat, Sep 5, 2:00 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field · 81° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Rhode Island–Temple) | 17–38 | – | 14–38 |
| Spread | Temple −20.9 | Temple −14.5 | Temple −24 |
| Total | 55.1 | 51.5 | 52 |
| Temple win chance | 90% | – | – |
Line moved from Temple −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Temple −14.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 6.4 pts better than Vegas for Temple (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Temple by 20.91%
Rhode Island by 14+
8%
Rhode Island by 1–13
24%
Temple by 1–13
67%
Temple by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Rhode Island | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.129 | Offense EPA / play | −0.018 #73 |
| +0.156 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.107 #119 |
| −7.0% | Offense success rate | −0.9% #81 |
| +11.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.5% #111 |
| −0.122 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.001 #94 |
| −0.134 | Passing EPA / play | −0.030 #69 |
| +0.160 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.071 #114 |
| +0.128 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.142 #121 |
| −10.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.9 #80 |
| +8.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.3 #107 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.6% #95 |
| +6.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.8% #96 |
| −1.62 | Points per drive | −0.09 #69 |
| +1.50 | Points per drive allowed | +0.69 #111 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #112 |
| +0.64 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #128 |
| −0.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.8% #100 |
| −7.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.1% #126 |
| −4.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.9% #84 |
| −10.8% | Havoc created | −0.9% #82 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.142 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.025 #126 |
| +0.032 | Passing explosiveness | +0.079 #99 |
| −0.57 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #90 |
| −0.131 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.088 #134 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 56% #50 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Rhode Island | Season to date | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-0-1 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 14.0 / 38.0 | Points for / against | 25.8 / 24.8 |
| -24.0 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| -9.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.8 |
| 65.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Rhode Island: last games
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Temple: last games
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