Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium · 85° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (FIU–South Florida) | 19–35 | – | 9–19 |
| Spread | South Florida −16.4 | South Florida −14.5 | South Florida −10 |
| Total | 54.2 | 53.5 | 28 |
| South Florida win chance | 85% | – | – |
Line moved from South Florida −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Florida −14.5 Lost★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 1.9 pts better than Vegas for South Florida (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Florida by 16.43%
Florida International by 14+
12%
Florida International by 1–13
29%
South Florida by 1–13
56%
South Florida by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| FIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.077 #111 | Offense EPA / play | +0.005 #56 |
| +0.056 #81 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.005 #50 |
| −3.0% #112 | Offense success rate | +0.1% #63 |
| +2.8% #101 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.7% #42 |
| +0.003 #90 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.014 #77 |
| −0.102 #105 | Passing EPA / play | −0.005 #52 |
| +0.038 #82 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.000 #49 |
| +0.091 #93 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.030 #56 |
| −4.3 #95 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.2 #46 |
| +5.6 #112 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.7 #66 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.1% #105 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.2% #77 |
| +1.1% #78 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.3% #62 |
| −0.55 #102 | Points per drive | +0.17 #48 |
| +0.58 #104 | Points per drive allowed | +0.07 #59 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.03 #103 | Line yards per rush | +0.12 #60 |
| +0.22 #126 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.13 #32 |
| +0.6% #130 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.1% #51 |
| −2.3% #128 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.9% #25 |
| −0.4% #107 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.7% #94 |
| −1.5% #107 | Havoc created | +0.3% #47 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.059 #5 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.000 #97 |
| +0.060 #118 | Passing explosiveness | +0.110 #62 |
| −0.13 #68 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.07 #48 |
| +0.025 #102 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.018 #88 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #63 | Run rate | 53% #99 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| FIU | Season to date | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 18.0 / 14.5 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 14.6 |
| +3.5 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| -3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.4 |
| 73.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Florida International: last games
No games yet.
South Florida: last games
No games yet.