Final
Sat, Sep 5, 12:00 PM ET
Michie Stadium · 74° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Bryant–Army) | 10–39 | – | 3–59 |
| Spread | Army −28.9 | Army −37.5 | Army −56 |
| Total | 49.8 | 51.5 | 62 |
| Army win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Army −36.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Bryant +37.5 Lost★ Under 51.5 Lost
Spread: 8.6 pts better than Vegas for Bryant (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Army by 28.90%
Bryant by 14+
3%
Bryant by 1–13
14%
Army by 1–13
83%
Army by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Bryant | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.314 | Offense EPA / play | −0.098 #122 |
| +0.313 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.103 #115 |
| −13.5% | Offense success rate | −3.4% #117 |
| +12.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.3% #123 |
| −0.252 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.005 #88 |
| −0.363 | Passing EPA / play | −0.104 #106 |
| +0.214 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.089 #126 |
| +0.424 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.191 #133 |
| −20.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.5 #132 |
| +20.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.8 #78 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.5% #133 |
| +13.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +2.9% #119 |
| −2.50 | Points per drive | −0.75 #122 |
| +2.33 | Points per drive allowed | +0.56 #100 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.66 | Line yards per rush | +0.08 #72 |
| +0.49 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #132 |
| +2.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.9% #3 |
| −2.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #124 |
| −2.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −5.4% #1 |
| −9.4% | Havoc created | −2.6% #131 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.088 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.017 #52 |
| −0.003 | Passing explosiveness | +0.676 #1 |
| −1.05 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.51 #138 |
| +0.075 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.006 #47 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% | Run rate | 90% #1 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Bryant | Season to date | Army |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 1-2-1 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 3.0 / 59.0 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 19.8 |
| -56.0 | Avg margin | +13.5 |
| -18.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.8 |
| 58.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Bryant: last games
No games yet.
Army: last games
No games yet.