Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Michie Stadium · 74° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (South Florida–Army) | 23–25 | – | 28–24 |
| Spread | Army −1.4 | Army −3 | South Florida −4 |
| Total | 48.0 | 45.5 | 52 |
| Army win chance | 54% | – | – |
Line moved from Army −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Florida +3 Won★ Over 45.5 Won
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for South Florida (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Army by 1.416%
South Florida by 14+
30%
South Florida by 1–13
32%
Army by 1–13
21%
Army by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| South Florida | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.065 #103 | Offense EPA / play | +0.014 #52 |
| −0.020 #46 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.099 #102 |
| −0.6% #70 | Offense success rate | −0.9% #75 |
| +0.2% #61 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #119 |
| −0.040 #105 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.207 #4 |
| −0.058 #84 | Passing EPA / play | −0.222 #130 |
| −0.091 #17 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.110 #117 |
| +0.014 #62 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.124 #102 |
| −3.5 #87 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.8 #81 |
| −1.8 #39 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.5 #65 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.9% #105 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.5% #116 |
| −1.3% #49 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.3% #105 |
| −0.40 #82 | Points per drive | +0.29 #38 |
| −0.22 #44 | Points per drive allowed | +0.52 #98 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.15 #117 | Line yards per rush | +0.38 #17 |
| −0.13 #38 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.23 #113 |
| +0.5% #106 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.6% #3 |
| +2.3% #31 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.1% #67 |
| −0.3% #107 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −6.9% #1 |
| −0.5% #74 | Havoc created | −2.2% #114 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.111 #120 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.190 #9 |
| −0.081 #136 | Passing explosiveness | +0.357 #6 |
| −0.43 #121 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.40 #17 |
| −0.041 #54 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.048 #49 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #50 | Run rate | 87% #2 |
| −7.7 #65 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −36.5 #124 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| South Florida | Season to date | Army |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-2-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 26.6 / 14.6 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 19.8 |
| +12.0 | Avg margin | +13.5 |
| -2.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.8 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
South Florida: last 1 games
| W19-9 |
Army: last 1 games
| W59-3 |
