Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Protective Stadium · 83° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UL Monroe–UAB) | 20–36 | – | 20–26 |
| Spread | UAB −16.0 | UAB −9.5 | UAB −6 |
| Total | 55.8 | 53.5 | 46 |
| UAB win chance | 84% | – | – |
Line moved from UAB −7.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UAB −9.5 Lost★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 6.5 pts better than Vegas for UAB (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UAB by 16.03%
UL Monroe by 14+
13%
UL Monroe by 1–13
29%
UAB by 1–13
55%
UAB by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UL Monroe | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.147 #129 | Offense EPA / play | −0.039 #83 |
| +0.205 #136 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.151 #129 |
| −6.8% #131 | Offense success rate | −0.8% #73 |
| +6.3% #133 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.0% #132 |
| −0.035 #103 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.099 #32 |
| −0.181 #122 | Passing EPA / play | −0.139 #110 |
| +0.230 #138 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.067 #99 |
| +0.187 #120 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.219 #127 |
| −10.0 #133 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.6 #77 |
| +12.8 #136 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.9 #123 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.4% #127 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.0% #40 |
| +6.2% #132 | Passing-down success allowed | +8.1% #137 |
| −0.90 #116 | Points per drive | −0.20 #63 |
| +2.06 #137 | Points per drive allowed | +0.96 #127 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.03 #99 | Line yards per rush | +0.33 #25 |
| +0.48 #136 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.15 #103 |
| −1.1% #80 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.2% #18 |
| −4.1% #131 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.1% #69 |
| +0.3% #115 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.7% #58 |
| −2.6% #119 | Havoc created | −3.4% #127 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.049 #100 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.089 #29 |
| +0.164 #43 | Passing explosiveness | +0.166 #41 |
| −0.32 #101 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.24 #84 |
| −0.061 #43 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.066 #92 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% #26 | Run rate | 55% #68 |
| +6.7 #22 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +4.5 #26 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UL Monroe | Season to date | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-2 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 24.0 / 44.6 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 23.4 |
| -20.6 | Avg margin | +0.6 |
| -10.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.4 |
| 57.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
UL Monroe: last 1 games
| L13-62 |
UAB: last 1 games
| L23-42 |
