Final
Sat, Sep 19, 8:00 PM ET
Cajun Field · 85° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UAB–Louisiana) | 24–35 | – | 14–21 |
| Spread | Louisiana −11.3 | Louisiana −7 | Louisiana −7 |
| Total | 59.3 | 55.5 | 35 |
| Louisiana win chance | 76% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisiana −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana −7 Push★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 3.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana by 11.36%
UAB by 14+
18%
UAB by 1–13
32%
Louisiana by 1–13
43%
Louisiana by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UAB | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.102 #110 | Offense EPA / play | +0.005 #62 |
| +0.109 #108 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.056 #79 |
| −0.5% #72 | Offense success rate | −1.3% #79 |
| +7.3% #136 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.0% #109 |
| +0.072 #41 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.178 #13 |
| −0.324 #134 | Passing EPA / play | −0.017 #59 |
| +0.095 #105 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.060 #86 |
| +0.078 #79 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.137 #101 |
| −6.3 #105 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.9 #47 |
| +7.7 #126 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.0 #98 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.0% #36 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.3% #42 |
| +6.7% #131 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.1% #125 |
| −0.77 #104 | Points per drive | −0.14 #61 |
| +0.87 #118 | Points per drive allowed | +0.45 #88 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.33 #30 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #77 |
| +0.34 #124 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.20 #98 |
| −4.9% #26 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.9% #70 |
| −1.8% #100 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.4% #62 |
| −0.7% #91 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.9% #52 |
| −2.9% #120 | Havoc created | −2.1% #106 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.008 #79 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.291 #1 |
| +0.171 #46 | Passing explosiveness | +0.101 #72 |
| −0.57 #129 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.20 #24 |
| −0.151 #18 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.013 #70 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% #31 | Run rate | 63% #15 |
| −8.8 #58 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.3 #41 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UAB | Season to date | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 3-1-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 24.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 29.2 / 19.4 |
| +0.6 | Avg margin | +9.8 |
| +0.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.6 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.2 |
