Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium · 79° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Delaware State–South Florida) | 7–49 | – | 17–59 |
| Spread | South Florida −42.2 | South Florida −37.5 | South Florida −42 |
| Total | 55.3 | 59.5 | 76 |
| South Florida win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from South Florida −36.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ South Florida −37.5 Won★ Under 59.5 Lost
Spread: 4.7 pts better than Vegas for South Florida (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.2 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around South Florida by 42.20%
Delaware State by 14+
0%
Delaware State by 1–13
4%
South Florida by 1–13
96%
South Florida by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Delaware State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.280 | Offense EPA / play | −0.006 #66 |
| +0.233 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.014 #47 |
| −11.3% | Offense success rate | +2.1% #40 |
| +10.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.5% #90 |
| −0.052 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.033 #62 |
| −0.433 | Passing EPA / play | −0.016 #57 |
| +0.135 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.112 #16 |
| +0.256 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.163 #110 |
| −18.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.1 #70 |
| +14.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.8 #38 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.3% #66 |
| +11.9% | Passing-down success allowed | −0.7% #52 |
| −2.83 | Points per drive | −0.35 #80 |
| +1.76 | Points per drive allowed | −0.35 #34 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.46 | Line yards per rush | +0.03 #85 |
| +0.48 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.07 #55 |
| +10.4% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.6% #87 |
| +0.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.4% #38 |
| +5.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.6% #67 |
| −3.2% | Havoc created | −0.2% #62 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.213 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.057 #103 |
| +0.027 | Passing explosiveness | −0.097 #129 |
| +0.68 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.36 #98 |
| +0.195 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.111 #24 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% | Run rate | 57% #59 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.3 #45 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Delaware State | Season to date | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 17.0 / 59.0 | Points for / against | 26.6 / 14.6 |
| -42.0 | Avg margin | +12.0 |
| -4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.4 |
| 63.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Delaware State: last games
No games yet.
South Florida: last 2 games
| W28-24 | |
| W19-9 |
