Final
Thu, Oct 1, 9:00 PM ET
Chapman Stadium · 70° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (North Texas–Tulsa) | 31–26 | – | 45–44 |
| Spread | North Texas −5.0 | North Texas −3 | North Texas −1 |
| Total | 56.9 | 56.5 | 89 |
| Tulsa win chance | 38% | – | – |
Line moved from North Texas −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ North Texas −3 Lost★ Over 56.5 Won
Spread: 2.0 pts better than Vegas for North Texas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around North Texas by 5.029%
North Texas by 14+
33%
North Texas by 1–13
26%
Tulsa by 1–13
12%
Tulsa by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Texas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.159 #15 | Offense EPA / play | −0.081 #99 |
| +0.088 #95 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.018 #50 |
| +5.3% #19 | Offense success rate | −4.7% #113 |
| +6.6% #131 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.9% #53 |
| +0.146 #20 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.025 #73 |
| +0.148 #21 | Passing EPA / play | −0.145 #104 |
| −0.071 #27 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.036 #39 |
| +0.368 #137 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.015 #57 |
| +6.9 #20 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.2 #115 |
| +6.1 #107 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.4 #51 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.7% #34 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −13.5% #138 |
| +3.3% #98 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.0% #93 |
| +0.55 #34 | Points per drive | −1.05 #113 |
| +0.54 #100 | Points per drive allowed | −0.10 #54 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.37 #25 | Line yards per rush | +0.11 #66 |
| −0.33 #21 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.09 #84 |
| −5.2% #25 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.6% #35 |
| +1.2% #52 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.2% #91 |
| −3.8% #25 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.6% #64 |
| −1.4% #90 | Havoc created | −1.9% #101 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.201 #6 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.058 #47 |
| +0.107 #70 | Passing explosiveness | +0.000 #110 |
| +0.00 #50 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.05 #43 |
| +0.122 #109 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.021 #58 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #115 | Run rate | 55% #80 |
| −6.3 #47 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.0 #105 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Texas | Season to date | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 40.6 / 33.0 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 21.2 |
| +7.6 | Avg margin | +6.6 |
| +8.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.5 |
| 65.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
North Texas: last 4 games
| W63-14 | |
| L35-49 | |
| W44-6 | |
| L16-52 |
Tulsa: last 4 games
| L6-34 | |
| W42-0 | |
| W23-17 | |
| W24-10 |
