Final
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET
Delaware Stadium · 78° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Merrimack–Delaware) | 11–41 | – | 7–42 |
| Spread | Delaware −29.7 | Delaware −31.5 | Delaware −35 |
| Total | 51.4 | 56.5 | 49 |
| Delaware win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Delaware −28.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Merrimack +31.5 Lost★ Under 56.5 Won
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Merrimack (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.1 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Delaware by 29.70%
Merrimack by 14+
3%
Merrimack by 1–13
13%
Delaware by 1–13
84%
Delaware by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Merrimack | Opponent-adjusted, vs. an average FBS team | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.365 | Offense EPA / play | −0.094 #121 |
| +0.264 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.151 #135 |
| −13.7% | Offense success rate | −3.5% #120 |
| +11.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.7% #127 |
| −0.186 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.069 #134 |
| −0.527 | Passing EPA / play | −0.135 #124 |
| +0.308 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.104 #131 |
| +0.223 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.188 #132 |
| −25.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.4 #119 |
| +15.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.6 #133 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.9% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.0% #127 |
| +3.4% | Passing-down success allowed | +4.8% #134 |
| −3.01 | Points per drive | −0.80 #125 |
| +2.06 | Points per drive allowed | +1.02 #130 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.66 | Line yards per rush | −0.06 #121 |
| +0.72 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.17 #118 |
| +4.5% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #110 |
| −4.2% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #93 |
| −1.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #113 |
| −11.6% | Havoc created | −1.9% #122 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.043 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.005 #103 |
| +0.042 | Passing explosiveness | +0.103 #71 |
| −0.62 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.44 #133 |
| −0.076 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.033 #110 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% | Run rate | 49% #130 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Merrimack | Season to date | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 7.0 / 42.0 | Points for / against | 21.4 / 25.6 |
| -35.0 | Avg margin | -4.2 |
| -3.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.0 |
| 58.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.0 |
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