Final
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Stadium · 87° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (West Georgia–Kennesaw State) | 14–37 | – | 0–47 |
| Spread | Kennesaw State −23.3 | Kennesaw State −22.5 | Kennesaw State −47 |
| Total | 50.3 | 50.5 | 47 |
| Kennesaw State win chance | 93% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kennesaw State −22.5 Won★ Under 50.5 Won
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Kennesaw State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.2 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kennesaw State by 23.31%
West Georgia by 14+
6%
West Georgia by 1–13
21%
Kennesaw State by 1–13
72%
Kennesaw State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| West Georgia | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.268 | Offense EPA / play | −0.072 #106 |
| +0.159 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.115 #122 |
| −12.8% | Offense success rate | −3.5% #119 |
| +6.9% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.3% #122 |
| −0.138 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.012 #99 |
| −0.414 | Passing EPA / play | −0.088 #98 |
| +0.060 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.094 #127 |
| +0.261 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.154 #128 |
| −21.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.8 #116 |
| +9.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.0 #118 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.0% #102 |
| +2.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.6% #91 |
| −2.74 | Points per drive | −0.77 #124 |
| +1.37 | Points per drive allowed | +0.74 #116 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.42 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #108 |
| +0.35 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.22 #124 |
| +2.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.8% #98 |
| −4.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.6% #114 |
| −3.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #98 |
| −10.8% | Havoc created | −0.8% #81 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.012 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.009 #79 |
| −0.005 | Passing explosiveness | +0.214 #7 |
| −0.42 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.37 #129 |
| +0.200 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.033 #112 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 57% #42 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| West Georgia | Season to date | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 0-4 |
| 3.5 / 49.5 | Points for / against | 21.8 / 22.5 |
| -46.0 | Avg margin | -0.8 |
| -19.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 51.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.0 |
West Georgia: last games
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Kennesaw State: last games
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