Final
Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium · 77° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UNCO–Wyoming) | 12–43 | – | 13–21 |
| Spread | Wyoming −31.2 | Wyoming −23.5 | Wyoming −8 |
| Total | 54.4 | 44.5 | 34 |
| Wyoming win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from Wyoming −22.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wyoming −23.5 Lost★ Over 44.5 Lost
Spread: 7.7 pts better than Vegas for Wyoming (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 9.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wyoming by 31.20%
Northern Colorado by 14+
2%
Northern Colorado by 1–13
12%
Wyoming by 1–13
86%
Wyoming by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UNCO | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.216 | Offense EPA / play | −0.154 #131 |
| +0.257 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.103 #107 |
| −9.4% | Offense success rate | −3.1% #107 |
| +12.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.0% #103 |
| −0.171 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.005 #89 |
| −0.214 | Passing EPA / play | −0.190 #125 |
| +0.287 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.053 #89 |
| +0.197 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.160 #114 |
| −19.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.6 #136 |
| +14.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.5 #92 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.9% #119 |
| +9.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +3.7% #108 |
| −2.84 | Points per drive | −1.23 #131 |
| +1.59 | Points per drive allowed | +0.18 #68 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.45 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #69 |
| +0.67 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #60 |
| +5.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.2% #59 |
| −5.9% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.4% #76 |
| +6.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.4% #137 |
| −3.9% | Havoc created | −2.7% #121 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.107 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.033 #94 |
| +0.137 | Passing explosiveness | +0.008 #115 |
| −1.13 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.43 #122 |
| −0.049 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.039 #82 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 59% #30 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.4 #64 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UNCO | Season to date | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 13.0 / 21.0 | Points for / against | 14.2 / 22.0 |
| -8.0 | Avg margin | -7.8 |
| +15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.3 |
| 64.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 56.0 |
Northern Colorado: last games
No games yet.
Wyoming: last 1 games
| L13-35 |
