Final
Sat, Sep 12, 11:59 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 78° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NMSU–Hawai'i) | 20–34 | – | 19–29 |
| Spread | Hawai'i −13.4 | Hawai'i −7.5 | Hawai'i −10 |
| Total | 54.3 | 50.5 | 48 |
| Hawai'i win chance | 80% | – | – |
Line moved from Hawai'i −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Hawai'i −7.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 5.9 pts better than Vegas for Hawai'i (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Hawai'i by 13.44%
New Mexico State by 14+
16%
New Mexico State by 1–13
31%
Hawai'i by 1–13
49%
Hawai'i by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NMSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.150 #126 | Offense EPA / play | −0.150 #125 |
| +0.132 #108 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.127 #106 |
| −9.2% #134 | Offense success rate | −7.4% #128 |
| +7.0% #125 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.5% #99 |
| −0.160 #129 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.103 #107 |
| −0.112 #104 | Passing EPA / play | −0.186 #128 |
| +0.132 #116 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.173 #127 |
| +0.128 #102 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.002 #55 |
| −6.1 #103 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.4 #126 |
| +9.0 #123 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.0 #101 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.7% #106 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.4% #72 |
| +6.5% #122 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.5% #41 |
| −1.21 #128 | Points per drive | −1.43 #134 |
| +1.20 #109 | Points per drive allowed | +0.63 #72 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.50 #126 | Line yards per rush | −0.09 #68 |
| +0.47 #125 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.51 #132 |
| +3.4% #108 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.7% #64 |
| −1.2% #69 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.4% #132 |
| +1.6% #107 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.1% #118 |
| −4.3% #130 | Havoc created | −4.0% #127 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.003 #58 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.073 #28 |
| +0.150 #18 | Passing explosiveness | −0.001 #72 |
| −0.45 #128 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.38 #117 |
| +0.000 #82 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.000 #81 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% #130 | Run rate | 40% #138 |
| −20.5 #94 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.2 #58 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NMSU | Season to date | Hawai'i |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-3 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.8 / 26.4 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 24.8 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | -7.2 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.3 |
| 60.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 72.4 |
New Mexico State: last 2 games
| W51-14 | |
| L17-34 |
