Final
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET
UB Stadium · 71° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UAlbany–Buffalo) | 10–41 | – | 17–21 |
| Spread | Buffalo −31.2 | Buffalo −18.5 | Buffalo −4 |
| Total | 50.7 | 47.5 | 38 |
| Buffalo win chance | 98% | – | – |
Line moved from Buffalo −24.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Buffalo −18.5 Lost★ Over 47.5 Lost
Spread: 12.7 pts better than Vegas for Buffalo (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 3.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Buffalo by 31.20%
UAlbany by 14+
2%
UAlbany by 1–13
11%
Buffalo by 1–13
86%
Buffalo by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UAlbany | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.308 | Offense EPA / play | −0.094 #120 |
| +0.215 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.077 #97 |
| −15.3% | Offense success rate | −3.4% #118 |
| +11.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +2.1% #90 |
| −0.152 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.032 #116 |
| −0.507 | Passing EPA / play | −0.096 #99 |
| +0.112 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.041 #85 |
| +0.303 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.103 #101 |
| −20.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.6 #112 |
| +14.5 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.3 #98 |
| Situational | ||
| −14.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.6% #112 |
| +4.4% | Passing-down success allowed | +1.4% #88 |
| −2.48 | Points per drive | −0.68 #116 |
| +1.97 | Points per drive allowed | +0.34 #83 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.77 | Line yards per rush | −0.03 #106 |
| +0.39 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #108 |
| +4.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.6% #71 |
| −5.0% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.6% #117 |
| −5.4% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.6% #101 |
| −8.3% | Havoc created | −1.1% #93 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.074 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.000 #96 |
| +0.042 | Passing explosiveness | +0.134 #44 |
| −0.40 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.24 #105 |
| −0.152 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.038 #115 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% | Run rate | 56% #53 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UAlbany | Season to date | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 17.0 / 21.0 | Points for / against | 20.4 / 30.6 |
| -4.0 | Avg margin | -10.2 |
| +14.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.1 |
| 63.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.2 |
UAlbany: last games
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Buffalo: last games
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