Final
Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM ET
Dix Stadium · 72° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wofford–Kent State) | 19–31 | – | 15–36 |
| Spread | Kent State −12.5 | Kent State −10 | Kent State −21 |
| Total | 49.5 | 45.5 | 51 |
| Kent State win chance | 78% | – | – |
Line moved from Kent State −11.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kent State −10 Won★ Over 45.5 Won
Spread: 2.5 pts better than Vegas for Kent State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kent State by 12.55%
Wofford by 14+
17%
Wofford by 1–13
32%
Kent State by 1–13
46%
Kent State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wofford | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.359 | Offense EPA / play | −0.085 #107 |
| +0.173 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.241 #137 |
| −14.4% | Offense success rate | −6.5% #124 |
| +12.1% | Defense success rate allowed | +10.3% #137 |
| −0.270 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.126 #119 |
| −0.409 | Passing EPA / play | −0.068 #90 |
| +0.162 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.226 #135 |
| +0.150 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.205 #122 |
| −18.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.2 #129 |
| +8.9 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +14.8 #136 |
| Situational | ||
| −17.1% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.7% #114 |
| +13.2% | Passing-down success allowed | +7.3% #128 |
| −2.41 | Points per drive | −0.90 #111 |
| +1.80 | Points per drive allowed | +3.30 #138 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.88 | Line yards per rush | −0.38 #115 |
| +0.69 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.48 #129 |
| +5.2% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.4% #95 |
| −2.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.9% #120 |
| +3.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.1% #96 |
| −3.6% | Havoc created | −4.2% #129 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.070 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.015 #53 |
| −0.107 | Passing explosiveness | +0.057 #51 |
| −0.80 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.25 #92 |
| −0.175 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.057 #59 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 53% #51 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +14.7 #10 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wofford | Season to date | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 15.0 / 36.0 | Points for / against | 15.0 / 31.4 |
| -21.0 | Avg margin | -16.4 |
| -11.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.6 |
| 51.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.2 |
Wofford: last games
No games yet.
Kent State: last 1 games
| L0-57 |
