Final
Fri, Sep 4, 7:00 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium · 86° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NCAT–Georgia State) | 12–47 | – | 10–59 |
| Spread | Georgia State −34.3 | Georgia State −28.5 | Georgia State −49 |
| Total | 58.8 | 58.5 | 69 |
| Georgia State win chance | 98% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia State −28.5 Won★ Over 58.5 Won
Spread: 5.8 pts better than Vegas for Georgia State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia State by 34.30%
North Carolina A&T by 14+
2%
North Carolina A&T by 1–13
9%
Georgia State by 1–13
89%
Georgia State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NCAT | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.295 | Offense EPA / play | −0.092 #113 |
| +0.344 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.148 #128 |
| −15.9% | Offense success rate | −3.7% #104 |
| +13.7% | Defense success rate allowed | +5.9% #118 |
| −0.285 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.088 #108 |
| −0.254 | Passing EPA / play | −0.111 #118 |
| +0.280 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.108 #118 |
| +0.363 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.156 #126 |
| −19.9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.8 #124 |
| +26.6 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.4 #133 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.3% #97 |
| +10.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +6.2% #131 |
| −2.28 | Points per drive | −0.90 #122 |
| +3.86 | Points per drive allowed | +1.55 #129 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.08 | Line yards per rush | −0.26 #98 |
| +0.66 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.30 #117 |
| +8.6% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.4% #99 |
| −5.6% | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.9% #135 |
| +1.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.3% #102 |
| −8.5% | Havoc created | −2.5% #116 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.042 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.036 #131 |
| +0.040 | Passing explosiveness | +0.007 #66 |
| −0.67 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.32 #126 |
| +0.024 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.019 #81 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% | Run rate | 47% #123 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NCAT | Season to date | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 10.0 / 59.0 | Points for / against | 39.4 / 19.0 |
| -49.0 | Avg margin | +20.4 |
| -20.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.7 |
| 53.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
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