Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA) · 83° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisiana Tech–LSU) | 13–40 | – | 14–45 |
| Spread | LSU −27.1 | LSU −34.5 | LSU −31 |
| Total | 53.4 | 54.5 | 59 |
| LSU win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from LSU −31.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana Tech +34.5 Won★ Under 54.5 Lost
Spread: 7.4 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around LSU by 27.11%
Louisiana Tech by 14+
4%
Louisiana Tech by 1–13
16%
LSU by 1–13
79%
LSU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisiana Tech | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.012 #51 | Offense EPA / play | +0.095 #24 |
| +0.079 #83 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.196 #1 |
| −4.1% #109 | Offense success rate | +5.2% #11 |
| +2.3% #72 | Defense success rate allowed | −8.2% #1 |
| −0.015 #63 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.132 #9 |
| +0.064 #35 | Passing EPA / play | +0.062 #37 |
| +0.040 #71 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.154 #3 |
| +0.215 #127 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.240 #1 |
| +1.2 #48 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.0 #15 |
| +4.8 #91 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −8.7 #10 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.8% #43 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +11.3% #2 |
| +3.8% #95 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.1% #3 |
| +1.11 #21 | Points per drive | +1.19 #20 |
| +1.36 #119 | Points per drive allowed | −0.87 #6 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #82 | Line yards per rush | +0.36 #4 |
| +0.12 #71 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.68 #3 |
| +1.8% #82 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.6% #2 |
| −0.9% #66 | Opponent runs stuffed | +9.5% #1 |
| +0.9% #93 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #19 |
| +1.7% #27 | Havoc created | +3.5% #8 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.029 #49 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.019 #52 |
| +0.222 #5 | Passing explosiveness | +0.034 #56 |
| +0.36 #20 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.12 #29 |
| +0.080 #117 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.108 #35 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #39 | Run rate | 52% #70 |
| −57.3 #138 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.8 #37 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisiana Tech | Season to date | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 36.0 / 29.0 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 15.2 |
| +7.0 | Avg margin | +28.4 |
| +9.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 49.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.8 |
Louisiana Tech: last 1 games
| W80-6 |
LSU: last 1 games
| W51-10 |
