Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · 83° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Murray State–MTSU) | 14–44 | – | 14–38 |
| Spread | MTSU −29.8 | MTSU −22.5 | MTSU −24 |
| Total | 58.2 | 55.5 | 52 |
| Middle Tennessee win chance | 97% | – | – |
Line moved from MTSU −20.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ MTSU −22.5 Won★ Over 55.5 Lost
Spread: 7.3 pts better than Vegas for Middle Tennessee (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around MTSU by 29.80%
Murray State by 14+
3%
Murray State by 1–13
13%
Middle Tennessee by 1–13
83%
Middle Tennessee by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Murray State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.300 | Offense EPA / play | −0.107 #118 |
| +0.379 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.159 #131 |
| −11.9% | Offense success rate | −3.5% #101 |
| +16.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +7.1% #131 |
| −0.307 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.112 #128 |
| −0.335 | Passing EPA / play | −0.123 #124 |
| +0.368 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.083 #100 |
| +0.332 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.194 #133 |
| −21.2 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.3 #126 |
| +21.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +10.0 #129 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.9% #107 |
| +10.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.1% #125 |
| −2.46 | Points per drive | −1.11 #131 |
| +3.16 | Points per drive allowed | +1.31 #114 |
| Trenches | ||
| −1.09 | Line yards per rush | −0.27 #99 |
| +0.97 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.18 #87 |
| +11.3% | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.6% #127 |
| −5.4% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.5% #83 |
| +1.1% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.4% #129 |
| −7.5% | Havoc created | −2.5% #115 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.100 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.035 #129 |
| −0.102 | Passing explosiveness | −0.026 #115 |
| −0.78 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.23 #105 |
| +0.031 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.006 #119 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% | Run rate | 42% #137 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Murray State | Season to date | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-3 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 7.0 / 48.5 | Points for / against | 20.8 / 28.0 |
| -41.5 | Avg margin | -7.2 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.0 |
| 49.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
Murray State: last games
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Middle Tennessee: last games
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