Final
Sat, Sep 5, 8:00 PM ET
Cajun Field · 80° · wind 1 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Lamar–Louisiana) | 13–40 | – | 7–38 |
| Spread | Louisiana −26.4 | Louisiana −20.5 | Louisiana −31 |
| Total | 52.9 | 48.5 | 45 |
| Louisiana win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from Louisiana −18.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Louisiana −20.5 Won★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 5.9 pts better than Vegas for Louisiana (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts above Vegas (50% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisiana by 26.41%
Lamar by 14+
4%
Lamar by 1–13
17%
Louisiana by 1–13
78%
Louisiana by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Lamar | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.287 | Offense EPA / play | −0.091 #111 |
| +0.232 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.099 #98 |
| −13.3% | Offense success rate | −4.5% #111 |
| +10.3% | Defense success rate allowed | +6.1% #120 |
| −0.255 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.055 #87 |
| −0.294 | Passing EPA / play | −0.098 #111 |
| +0.182 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.111 #122 |
| +0.276 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.089 #90 |
| −17.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −4.9 #98 |
| +13.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.6 #105 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.8% #115 |
| +10.5% | Passing-down success allowed | +3.1% #94 |
| −2.27 | Points per drive | −0.63 #103 |
| +2.53 | Points per drive allowed | +1.09 #101 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.77 | Line yards per rush | −0.24 #91 |
| +0.51 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.33 #125 |
| +5.4% | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.6% #104 |
| −4.2% | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.5% #112 |
| −1.0% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.9% #98 |
| −8.8% | Havoc created | −2.4% #111 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.052 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.018 #95 |
| +0.029 | Passing explosiveness | −0.035 #125 |
| −0.64 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.14 #79 |
| −0.037 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.042 #45 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% | Run rate | 56% #22 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Lamar | Season to date | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 3-1-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 7.0 / 38.0 | Points for / against | 29.2 / 19.4 |
| -31.0 | Avg margin | +9.8 |
| -10.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.6 |
| 45.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.2 |
Lamar: last games
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Louisiana: last games
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