Final
Sat, Sep 19, 11:30 AM ET
Delaware Stadium · 74° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (CCU–Delaware) | 23–32 | – | 14–22 |
| Spread | Delaware −9.4 | Delaware −4.5 | Delaware −8 |
| Total | 55.4 | 56.5 | 36 |
| Delaware win chance | 72% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Delaware −4.5 Won★ Under 56.5 Won
Spread: 4.9 pts better than Vegas for Delaware (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 1.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Delaware by 9.47%
Coastal Carolina by 14+
21%
Coastal Carolina by 1–13
33%
Delaware by 1–13
39%
Delaware by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| CCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.049 #88 | Offense EPA / play | −0.045 #84 |
| +0.090 #95 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.015 #63 |
| −4.1% #113 | Offense success rate | −2.9% #98 |
| +4.0% #110 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.2% #60 |
| −0.045 #109 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.034 #103 |
| −0.080 #92 | Passing EPA / play | −0.050 #74 |
| +0.076 #98 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.065 #32 |
| +0.218 #125 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.174 #113 |
| −4.1 #89 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #78 |
| +6.5 #116 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.3 #119 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.4% #94 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.3% #86 |
| +3.0% #103 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.0% #26 |
| −1.10 #118 | Points per drive | −0.56 #93 |
| +0.47 #91 | Points per drive allowed | +0.70 #112 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.01 #92 | Line yards per rush | −0.49 #135 |
| +0.30 #116 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.22 #37 |
| +1.3% #113 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.7% #130 |
| −4.0% #124 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.1% #43 |
| +2.2% #133 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.8% #138 |
| −0.5% #65 | Havoc created | −0.1% #59 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.108 #118 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.053 #51 |
| +0.419 #5 | Passing explosiveness | +0.403 #7 |
| −0.15 #69 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.44 #117 |
| +0.043 #83 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.097 #108 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #112 | Run rate | 48% #129 |
| −23.1 #122 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.9 #105 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| CCU | Season to date | Delaware |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 24.8 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 21.4 / 25.6 |
| -0.2 | Avg margin | -4.2 |
| -1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -2.0 |
| 62.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.0 |
Coastal Carolina: last 2 games
| W45-7 | |
| L24-31 |
Delaware: last 2 games
| L26-35 | |
| W42-7 |
