Final
Sat, Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · 79° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Sam Houston–Troy) | 19–30 | – | 21–24 |
| Spread | Troy −11.4 | Troy −15.5 | Troy −3 |
| Total | 49.1 | 52.5 | 45 |
| Troy win chance | 76% | – | – |
Line moved from Troy −17.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Sam Houston +15.5 Won★ Under 52.5 Won
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Troy by 11.45%
Sam Houston by 14+
18%
Sam Houston by 1–13
33%
Troy by 1–13
44%
Troy by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Sam Houston | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.168 #134 | Offense EPA / play | −0.105 #117 |
| +0.135 #118 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.085 #87 |
| −6.0% #126 | Offense success rate | −4.7% #114 |
| +7.6% #134 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.0% #91 |
| −0.087 #107 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.109 #125 |
| −0.206 #138 | Passing EPA / play | −0.097 #110 |
| +0.105 #115 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.080 #98 |
| +0.165 #129 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.092 #92 |
| −9.3 #133 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.1 #111 |
| +11.4 #136 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #84 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.7% #137 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.2% #108 |
| +5.1% #126 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.4% #98 |
| −1.16 #134 | Points per drive | −0.65 #104 |
| +1.66 #131 | Points per drive allowed | +0.99 #94 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.35 #119 | Line yards per rush | −0.33 #111 |
| +0.28 #114 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.26 #106 |
| +4.4% #133 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.5% #134 |
| −3.8% #133 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #93 |
| +2.2% #122 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.4% #138 |
| −2.9% #122 | Havoc created | −0.4% #65 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.027 #119 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.035 #128 |
| −0.047 #131 | Passing explosiveness | +0.007 #67 |
| −0.12 #77 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.33 #128 |
| −0.029 #64 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.012 #100 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #116 | Run rate | 51% #78 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Sam Houston | Season to date | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 27.8 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 28.0 / 24.0 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | +4.0 |
| +14.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.2 |
| 57.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 74.6 |
Sam Houston: last games
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