Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 86° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Nicholls–Sam Houston) | 15–44 | – | 0–59 |
| Spread | Sam Houston −28.8 | Sam Houston −21 | Sam Houston −59 |
| Total | 59.4 | 50.5 | 59 |
| Sam Houston win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Sam Houston −17.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Sam Houston −21 Won★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 7.8 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 8.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Sam Houston by 28.80%
Nicholls by 14+
3%
Nicholls by 1–13
14%
Sam Houston by 1–13
82%
Sam Houston by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Nicholls | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.267 | Offense EPA / play | −0.100 #104 |
| +0.211 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.122 #102 |
| −14.9% | Offense success rate | −1.8% #76 |
| +13.0% | Defense success rate allowed | +3.0% #76 |
| −0.280 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.155 #125 |
| −0.176 | Passing EPA / play | −0.107 #102 |
| +0.259 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.201 #131 |
| +0.156 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.005 #55 |
| −15.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.9 #129 |
| +20.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.5 #119 |
| Situational | ||
| −5.3% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.4% #91 |
| +9.3% | Passing-down success allowed | +3.2% #83 |
| −2.42 | Points per drive | −1.39 #126 |
| +3.40 | Points per drive allowed | +1.16 #108 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.93 | Line yards per rush | −0.58 #131 |
| +1.12 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.34 #103 |
| +10.4% | Runs stuffed at the line | +6.5% #127 |
| −9.8% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.9% #87 |
| +5.5% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.5% #137 |
| −3.5% | Havoc created | −0.2% #56 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.118 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.109 #112 |
| +0.122 | Passing explosiveness | −0.058 #91 |
| −0.62 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.39 #108 |
| +0.197 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.006 #79 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% | Run rate | 43% #132 |
| +9.1 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.6 #66 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Nicholls | Season to date | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 2-0 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 1.5 / 65.0 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 24.0 |
| -63.5 | Avg margin | +3.8 |
| -32.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +14.1 |
| 51.3 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.5 |
Nicholls: last 1 games
| L3-71 |
