Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Plaster Sports Complex · 84° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Lindenwood–Missouri State) | 15–41 | – | 14–48 |
| Spread | Missouri State −26.2 | Missouri State −16.5 | Missouri State −34 |
| Total | 56.4 | 53.5 | 62 |
| Missouri State win chance | 95% | – | – |
Line moved from Missouri State −19.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Missouri State −16.5 Won★ Over 53.5 Won
Spread: 9.7 pts better than Vegas for Missouri State (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Missouri State by 26.21%
Lindenwood by 14+
5%
Lindenwood by 1–13
17%
Missouri State by 1–13
77%
Missouri State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Lindenwood | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.228 | Offense EPA / play | −0.153 #130 |
| +0.298 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.099 #101 |
| −13.2% | Offense success rate | −6.4% #127 |
| +15.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +4.7% #124 |
| −0.125 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.177 #137 |
| −0.210 | Passing EPA / play | −0.123 #104 |
| +0.316 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.054 #91 |
| +0.273 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.114 #95 |
| −14.3 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.1 #129 |
| +16.2 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.3 #126 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.8% #129 |
| +9.9% | Passing-down success allowed | +5.8% #129 |
| −2.12 | Points per drive | −0.96 #122 |
| +1.89 | Points per drive allowed | +1.24 #129 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.67 | Line yards per rush | −0.24 #128 |
| +1.20 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.12 #97 |
| +6.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.7% #124 |
| −11.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.7% #101 |
| +5.9% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.5% #138 |
| −6.5% | Havoc created | −0.9% #83 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.167 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.088 #116 |
| +0.079 | Passing explosiveness | +0.208 #27 |
| −0.33 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #110 |
| −0.048 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.028 #78 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% | Run rate | 53% #106 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +18.5 #6 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Lindenwood | Season to date | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 1-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 8.5 / 38.5 | Points for / against | 24.0 / 32.0 |
| -30.0 | Avg margin | -8.0 |
| -9.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.1 |
| 52.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.5 |
Lindenwood: last games
No games yet.
Missouri State: last 1 games
| L0-50 |
