Final
Sat, Sep 5, 1:00 PM ET
Kroger Field · 90° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (YSU–Kentucky) | 15–45 | – | 13–45 |
| Spread | Kentucky −29.4 | Kentucky −22.5 | Kentucky −32 |
| Total | 60.2 | 61.5 | 58 |
| Kentucky win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Kentucky −23.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kentucky −22.5 Won★ Under 61.5 Won
Spread: 6.9 pts better than Vegas for Kentucky (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kentucky by 29.40%
Youngstown State by 14+
3%
Youngstown State by 1–13
14%
Kentucky by 1–13
83%
Kentucky by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| YSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.041 | Offense EPA / play | −0.006 #59 |
| +0.256 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.017 #33 |
| −2.9% | Offense success rate | +0.5% #45 |
| +10.7% | Defense success rate allowed | −0.0% #38 |
| −0.020 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.007 #52 |
| −0.117 | Passing EPA / play | +0.008 #50 |
| +0.217 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.021 #29 |
| +0.269 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.009 #37 |
| −6.1 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.3 #55 |
| +14.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.5 #41 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.0% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.1% #55 |
| +10.7% | Passing-down success allowed | +0.0% #42 |
| −0.03 | Points per drive | −0.02 #54 |
| +2.73 | Points per drive allowed | +0.02 #31 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.32 | Line yards per rush | +0.07 #31 |
| +0.50 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.07 #28 |
| +3.8% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.7% #32 |
| −1.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.0% #28 |
| −2.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #83 |
| −4.9% | Havoc created | −0.1% #62 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.036 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.001 #43 |
| −0.086 | Passing explosiveness | +0.035 #34 |
| +0.04 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.05 #56 |
| −0.034 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.008 #105 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% | Run rate | 51% #77 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| YSU | Season to date | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 13.0 / 45.0 | Points for / against | 34.6 / 26.8 |
| -32.0 | Avg margin | +7.8 |
| -9.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.9 |
| 53.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.6 |
Youngstown State: last games
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Kentucky: last games
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