BEAVER
MODEL
Home
NFL
NCAAF
NBA
NCAAB
MLB
How It Works
My Slip
NCAAF
›
Teams
› Kentucky
Kentucky
SEC · 2026
4-1
Record
6.9-5.1
Projected regular season
1%
Playoff chance
+8.9
Rating (pts vs. avg)
Next
Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM
vs LSU
31% to win
Matchup →
Schedule
results, or Beaver’s win chance for games ahead
Date
Opponent
Result / win chance
Beaver line
Vegas
Sep 5
vs
Youngstown State
W
45-13
−29.4
−22.5
Sep 12
vs
6
Alabama
L
17-45
+16.3
+9.5
Sep 19
at
Texas A&M
W
31-21
+25.9
+16.5
Sep 26
vs
South Alabama
W
45-21
−17.9
−20.5
Oct 3
at
South Carolina
W
35-34
+6.3
+2.5
Oct 10
vs
10
LSU
31%
+7.6
+8.5
Oct 17
at
Oklahoma
31%
+7.7
–
Oct 24
vs
Vanderbilt
69%
−7.8
–
Nov 7
at
15
Tennessee
26%
+10.6
–
Nov 14
vs
16
Florida
46%
+1.5
–
Nov 21
at
14
Missouri
26%
+10.1
–
Nov 28
vs
Louisville
55%
−1.9
–
Rating by week
EPA per play vs. average
−0.09
−0.03
+0.03
+0.09
+0.15
Entering week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
Net · 1: +0.01
Net · 2: +0.02
Net · 3: −0.04
Net · 4: +0.12
Net · 5: +0.11
Net · 6: +0.14
Net · 7: +0.14
Net · 8: +0.14
Net · 9: +0.14
Net · 10: +0.14
Net · 11: +0.14
Net · 12: +0.14
Net · 13: +0.14
Net · 15: +0.14
Offense · 1: −0.01
Offense · 2: +0.05
Offense · 3: −0.04
Offense · 4: +0.06
Offense · 5: +0.04
Offense · 6: +0.06
Offense · 7: +0.06
Offense · 8: +0.06
Offense · 9: +0.06
Offense · 10: +0.06
Offense · 11: +0.06
Offense · 12: +0.06
Offense · 13: +0.06
Offense · 15: +0.06
Defense (lower is better) · 1: −0.02
Defense (lower is better) · 2: +0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 3: −0.00
Defense (lower is better) · 4: −0.06
Defense (lower is better) · 5: −0.06
Defense (lower is better) · 6: −0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 7: −0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 8: −0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 9: −0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 10: −0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 11: −0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 12: −0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 13: −0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 15: −0.07
●
Net
●
Offense
●
Defense (lower is better)
Elo rating
after each game
1480
1501
1521
1542
1563
Sep 5
Sep 12
Sep 19
Sep 26
Oct 3
Elo · Sep 5: 1509
Elo · Sep 12: 1486
Elo · Sep 19: 1527
Elo · Sep 26: 1550
Elo · Oct 3: 1557
Season to date
Record
4-1
Conference
2-1
Home
2-1
Away
2-0
Against the spread
4-1
Over/under
4-1
Points for / against
34.6 / 26.8
Avg margin
+7.8