Final
Sun, Sep 6, 7:30 PM ET
Nissan Stadium · 85° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisville–Ole Miss) | 21–34 | – | 38–41 |
| Spread | Ole Miss −12.9 | Ole Miss −6.5 | Ole Miss −3 |
| Total | 55.0 | 54.5 | 79 |
| Ole Miss win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from Ole Miss −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ole Miss −6.5 Lost★ Over 54.5 Won
Spread: 6.4 pts better than Vegas for Ole Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ole Miss by 12.95%
Louisville by 14+
16%
Louisville by 1–13
32%
Ole Miss by 1–13
47%
Ole Miss by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisville | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.037 #39 | Offense EPA / play | +0.155 #10 |
| −0.043 #22 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.054 #20 |
| +3.2% #23 | Offense success rate | +6.0% #12 |
| −1.4% #25 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.3% #15 |
| +0.063 #24 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.100 #10 |
| +0.008 #52 | Passing EPA / play | +0.152 #11 |
| −0.007 #34 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.007 #43 |
| −0.059 #20 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.095 #14 |
| +3.6 #31 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +11.1 #5 |
| −2.0 #35 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.9 #19 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.5% #61 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +5.7% #7 |
| −1.1% #25 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.0% #17 |
| +0.39 #34 | Points per drive | +1.26 #11 |
| +0.19 #41 | Points per drive allowed | −0.40 #17 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.04 #48 | Line yards per rush | +0.14 #20 |
| −0.03 #38 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.08 #26 |
| +1.2% #73 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.8% #29 |
| +0.4% #40 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.6% #35 |
| −0.1% #67 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.2% #14 |
| +0.9% #35 | Havoc created | +1.3% #23 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.007 #29 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.015 #15 |
| −0.078 #138 | Passing explosiveness | +0.047 #21 |
| +0.27 #4 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.20 #12 |
| −0.099 #2 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.008 #104 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #112 | Run rate | 51% #72 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisville | Season to date | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 38.6 / 29.2 | Points for / against | 35.5 / 30.8 |
| +9.4 | Avg margin | +4.8 |
| -1.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.2 |
| 61.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.5 |
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