Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:45 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium · 81° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Charlotte–Ole Miss) | 11–56 | – | 9–41 |
| Spread | Ole Miss −45.3 | Ole Miss −44.5 | Ole Miss −32 |
| Total | 67.0 | 59.5 | 50 |
| Ole Miss win chance | 100% | – | – |
Line moved from Ole Miss −46.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Ole Miss −44.5 Lost★ Over 59.5 Lost
Spread: 0.8 pts better than Vegas for Ole Miss (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 7.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ole Miss by 45.30%
Charlotte by 14+
0%
Charlotte by 1–13
3%
Ole Miss by 1–13
97%
Ole Miss by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Charlotte | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.206 #136 | Offense EPA / play | +0.166 #8 |
| +0.282 #138 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.005 #51 |
| −9.8% #137 | Offense success rate | +6.6% #8 |
| +12.7% #138 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.2% #22 |
| −0.132 #122 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.081 #21 |
| −0.223 #132 | Passing EPA / play | +0.224 #7 |
| +0.265 #138 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.010 #54 |
| +0.234 #131 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.004 #56 |
| −10.8 #135 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +12.6 #3 |
| +18.2 #138 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.5 #36 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.6% #99 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.8% #44 |
| +12.6% #138 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.4% #26 |
| −1.73 #136 | Points per drive | +1.02 #23 |
| +2.17 #134 | Points per drive allowed | −0.33 #19 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.62 #133 | Line yards per rush | +0.09 #35 |
| +0.53 #133 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.24 #18 |
| +6.4% #133 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.4% #23 |
| −3.5% #113 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.0% #27 |
| +2.8% #127 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.1% #7 |
| −5.0% #136 | Havoc created | +1.0% #37 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.134 #11 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.072 #103 |
| +0.024 #60 | Passing explosiveness | +0.273 #4 |
| −0.06 #49 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.11 #58 |
| −0.072 #54 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.137 #128 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #121 | Run rate | 52% #62 |
| −34.5 #112 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +7.4 #20 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Charlotte | Season to date | Ole Miss |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-3 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 17.2 / 40.6 | Points for / against | 35.5 / 30.8 |
| -23.4 | Avg margin | +4.8 |
| -9.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.2 |
| 51.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.5 |
Charlotte: last 1 games
| L41-43 |
Ole Miss: last 1 games
| W41-38 |
