Final
Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM ET
Huntington Bank Stadium · 73° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MSST–Minnesota) | 26–31 | – | 38–13 |
| Spread | Minnesota −4.9 | MSST −1.5 | MSST −25 |
| Total | 57.0 | 53.5 | 51 |
| Minnesota win chance | 62% | – | – |
Line moved from Minnesota −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Minnesota +1.5 Lost★ Over 53.5 Lost
Spread: 6.4 pts better than Vegas for Minnesota (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Minnesota by 4.912%
Mississippi State by 14+
26%
Mississippi State by 1–13
33%
Minnesota by 1–13
29%
Minnesota by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| MSST | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.112 #15 | Offense EPA / play | +0.037 #43 |
| −0.022 #37 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.008 #44 |
| +4.3% #19 | Offense success rate | +1.0% #48 |
| −0.8% #35 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.2% #32 |
| +0.170 #4 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.030 #78 |
| +0.047 #41 | Passing EPA / play | +0.092 #27 |
| +0.000 #47 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.025 #62 |
| −0.073 #23 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.122 #99 |
| +9.1 #14 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.0 #33 |
| +1.6 #66 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #49 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.0% #23 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.4% #50 |
| −2.5% #25 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.5% #68 |
| +1.37 #16 | Points per drive | +2.04 #4 |
| +0.39 #52 | Points per drive allowed | +0.62 #71 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.33 #5 | Line yards per rush | −0.38 #116 |
| +0.20 #92 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.12 #73 |
| −2.4% #25 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.6% #110 |
| −3.9% #121 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #59 |
| +0.9% #95 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.3% #59 |
| −0.9% #81 | Havoc created | +1.7% #25 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.142 #10 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.047 #92 |
| −0.027 #83 | Passing explosiveness | +0.022 #64 |
| +0.47 #12 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.18 #74 |
| −0.115 #28 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.087 #119 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #89 | Run rate | 48% #109 |
| −24.7 #99 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −35.3 #116 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| MSST | Season to date | Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 2-0 | Away | 1-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 39.0 / 28.0 | Points for / against | 32.0 / 18.0 |
| +11.0 | Avg margin | +14.0 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.1 |
| 61.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.4 |
Mississippi State: last 1 games
| W62-13 |
Minnesota: last 1 games
| W59-7 |
