Final
Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM ET
Bobby Dodd Stadium · 78° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tennessee–Georgia Tech) | 31–25 | – | 45–24 |
| Spread | Tennessee −5.6 | Tennessee −12.5 | Tennessee −21 |
| Total | 56.4 | 55.5 | 69 |
| Georgia Tech win chance | 36% | – | – |
Line moved from Tennessee −8.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia Tech +12.5 Lost★ Over 55.5 Won
Spread: 6.9 pts better than Vegas for Georgia Tech (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.9 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tennessee by 5.630%
Tennessee by 14+
33%
Tennessee by 1–13
25%
Georgia Tech by 1–13
11%
Georgia Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tennessee | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.138 #11 | Offense EPA / play | +0.031 #44 |
| −0.087 #14 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.011 #65 |
| +4.7% #18 | Offense success rate | +2.6% #41 |
| −3.5% #18 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.0% #57 |
| +0.182 #9 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.022 #94 |
| +0.108 #21 | Passing EPA / play | +0.081 #25 |
| −0.021 #46 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.008 #64 |
| −0.170 #4 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.017 #46 |
| +10.7 #9 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.2 #70 |
| −0.7 #53 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.5 #29 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.3% #17 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.7% #32 |
| −5.3% #13 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.3% #62 |
| +1.58 #15 | Points per drive | −0.32 #74 |
| +0.10 #64 | Points per drive allowed | −0.41 #35 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.37 #18 | Line yards per rush | +0.00 #91 |
| +0.00 #68 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #62 |
| −5.2% #19 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.3% #132 |
| +3.6% #23 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.1% #111 |
| −3.7% #17 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.5% #65 |
| +2.7% #9 | Havoc created | −1.6% #97 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.190 #8 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.136 #129 |
| +0.203 #29 | Passing explosiveness | +0.083 #79 |
| +0.06 #34 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.37 #107 |
| −0.196 #5 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.085 #100 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #29 | Run rate | 56% #58 |
| −31.7 #113 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.3 #34 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tennessee | Season to date | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 0-4 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 36.8 / 15.2 | Points for / against | 27.0 / 26.0 |
| +21.6 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| +2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.9 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
