Final
Sat, Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET
Sanford Stadium · 79° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oklahoma–Georgia) | 17–33 | – | 13–41 |
| Spread | Georgia −15.6 | Georgia −11.5 | Georgia −28 |
| Total | 49.7 | 43.5 | 54 |
| Georgia win chance | 84% | – | – |
Line moved from Georgia −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Georgia −11.5 Won★ Over 43.5 Won
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Georgia (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 6.2 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Georgia by 15.63%
Oklahoma by 14+
13%
Oklahoma by 1–13
30%
Georgia by 1–13
54%
Georgia by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oklahoma | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.011 #71 | Offense EPA / play | +0.257 #1 |
| −0.172 #5 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.087 #16 |
| +0.5% #61 | Offense success rate | +11.5% #1 |
| −9.1% #2 | Defense success rate allowed | −6.7% #8 |
| −0.034 #101 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.262 #2 |
| +0.089 #32 | Passing EPA / play | +0.199 #14 |
| −0.115 #16 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.153 #9 |
| −0.190 #9 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.116 #19 |
| −1.2 #71 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +16.1 #2 |
| −13.7 #1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.3 #26 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.3% #35 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +9.4% #4 |
| −4.3% #24 | Passing-down success allowed | −10.2% #1 |
| +0.65 #29 | Points per drive | +3.09 #1 |
| −1.43 #2 | Points per drive allowed | −0.02 #60 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.07 #73 | Line yards per rush | +0.78 #1 |
| −0.49 #9 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.89 #3 |
| +2.4% #122 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.0% #10 |
| +4.0% #23 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.6% #29 |
| −1.7% #65 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.6% #26 |
| +4.7% #4 | Havoc created | +1.7% #22 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.114 #116 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.015 #66 |
| +0.204 #32 | Passing explosiveness | −0.013 #112 |
| −0.26 #89 | Open-field yards per rush | +1.03 #2 |
| −0.143 #18 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.029 #53 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #80 | Run rate | 55% #81 |
| −3.3 #35 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −23.9 #136 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oklahoma | Season to date | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 3-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-3 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 22.0 / 16.0 | Points for / against | 51.4 / 13.4 |
| +6.0 | Avg margin | +38.0 |
| -8.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +7.7 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 42.6 |
Oklahoma: last 3 games
| W14-6 | |
| L10-17 | |
| W51-0 |
Georgia: last 3 games
| W45-17 | |
| W70-20 | |
| W63-3 |
