Final
Sat, Sep 26, 7:45 PM ET
Davis Wade Stadium · 78° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Missouri–MSST) | 24–35 | – | 24–31 |
| Spread | MSST −10.6 | MSST −3.5 | MSST −7 |
| Total | 59.3 | 58.5 | 55 |
| Mississippi State win chance | 74% | – | – |
Line moved from MSST −1.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ MSST −3.5 Won★ Over 58.5 Lost
Spread: 7.1 pts better than Vegas for Mississippi State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around MSST by 10.67%
Missouri by 14+
19%
Missouri by 1–13
33%
Mississippi State by 1–13
42%
Mississippi State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Missouri | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.042 #44 | Offense EPA / play | +0.205 #3 |
| −0.121 #7 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.037 #30 |
| −0.4% #64 | Offense success rate | +7.8% #8 |
| −5.6% #9 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.3% #25 |
| −0.038 #80 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.219 #4 |
| +0.168 #22 | Passing EPA / play | +0.225 #11 |
| −0.074 #25 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.072 #26 |
| −0.143 #14 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.053 #36 |
| +2.6 #43 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +13.1 #5 |
| −2.6 #34 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.3 #38 |
| Situational | ||
| +2.3% #42 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +9.2% #5 |
| −2.8% #27 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.3% #3 |
| +0.30 #41 | Points per drive | +1.66 #12 |
| +0.17 #40 | Points per drive allowed | −0.32 #19 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.17 #19 | Line yards per rush | +0.43 #5 |
| −0.40 #12 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.11 #36 |
| −1.9% #29 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.8% #16 |
| +2.5% #32 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.5% #42 |
| −2.3% #24 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #41 |
| +5.9% #3 | Havoc created | −1.2% #81 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.128 #117 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.083 #27 |
| +0.089 #36 | Passing explosiveness | +0.158 #22 |
| −0.09 #61 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.54 #10 |
| +0.041 #95 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.097 #42 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #34 | Run rate | 54% #46 |
| −18.8 #124 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.2 #37 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Missouri | Season to date | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 37.6 / 20.0 | Points for / against | 39.0 / 28.0 |
| +17.6 | Avg margin | +11.0 |
| +2.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.0 |
Missouri: last 3 games
| W27-17 | |
| W38-21 | |
| W54-14 |
Mississippi State: last 3 games
| W41-34 | |
| W38-13 | |
| W62-13 |
