Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:45 PM ET
Tiger Stadium (LA) · 80° · wind 9 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (McNeese–LSU) | 0–58 | – | 14–63 |
| Spread | LSU −59.2 | LSU −53.5 | LSU −49 |
| Total | 57.7 | 62.5 | 77 |
| LSU win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ LSU −53.5 Lost★ Under 62.5 Lost
Spread: 5.7 pts better than Vegas for LSU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.8 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around LSU by 59.20%
McNeese by 14+
0%
McNeese by 1–13
0%
LSU by 1–13
100%
LSU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| McNeese | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.220 | Offense EPA / play | +0.113 #22 |
| +0.326 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.204 #4 |
| −12.5% | Offense success rate | +5.7% #16 |
| +10.8% | Defense success rate allowed | −11.3% #1 |
| −0.030 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.108 #41 |
| −0.403 | Passing EPA / play | +0.124 #29 |
| +0.472 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.168 #8 |
| +0.295 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.270 #1 |
| −17.7 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.3 #13 |
| +12.8 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −11.4 #5 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.5% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.3% #15 |
| +7.8% | Passing-down success allowed | −5.4% #13 |
| −2.53 | Points per drive | +1.11 #18 |
| +1.61 | Points per drive allowed | −1.26 #4 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.21 | Line yards per rush | +0.33 #33 |
| +1.01 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.85 #3 |
| +1.1% | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.7% #33 |
| −5.7% | Opponent runs stuffed | +7.8% #3 |
| +0.3% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.2% #96 |
| −3.7% | Havoc created | +4.6% #5 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.347 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.003 #71 |
| +0.163 | Passing explosiveness | +0.134 #58 |
| +0.17 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.08 #38 |
| +0.059 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.223 #130 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% | Run rate | 53% #98 |
| n/a | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +5.3 #2 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| McNeese | Season to date | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 14.0 / 63.0 | Points for / against | 43.6 / 15.2 |
| -49.0 | Avg margin | +28.4 |
| +4.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 54.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.8 |
McNeese: last games
No games yet.
LSU: last 4 games
| W35-6 | |
| L24-32 | |
| W45-14 | |
| W51-10 |
