Final
Thu, Sep 3, 7:00 PM ET
FBC Mortgage Stadium · 78° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (BCU–UCF) | 9–47 | – | 6–73 |
| Spread | UCF −37.9 | UCF −43.5 | UCF −67 |
| Total | 55.6 | 58.5 | 79 |
| UCF win chance | 99% | – | – |
Line moved from UCF −41.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ BCU +43.5 Lost★ Under 58.5 Lost
Spread: 5.6 pts better than Vegas for Bethune-Cookman (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.9 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UCF by 37.90%
Bethune-Cookman by 14+
1%
Bethune-Cookman by 1–13
6%
UCF by 1–13
93%
UCF by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| BCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.228 | Offense EPA / play | −0.026 #75 |
| +0.380 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.009 #53 |
| −11.4% | Offense success rate | −0.8% #78 |
| +18.5% | Defense success rate allowed | +1.1% #74 |
| −0.243 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.032 #69 |
| −0.204 | Passing EPA / play | −0.053 #82 |
| +0.477 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.037 #79 |
| +0.286 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.007 #47 |
| −16.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.1 #74 |
| +24.7 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.4 #50 |
| Situational | ||
| −12.2% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.9% #82 |
| +14.1% | Passing-down success allowed | −1.0% #38 |
| −2.53 | Points per drive | −0.07 #67 |
| +3.29 | Points per drive allowed | +0.03 #55 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.84 | Line yards per rush | +0.05 #83 |
| +1.30 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.05 #82 |
| +6.9% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.1% #122 |
| −10.2% | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.1% #102 |
| −2.2% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.0% #83 |
| −9.1% | Havoc created | −0.2% #61 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.021 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.072 #2 |
| +0.117 | Passing explosiveness | +0.080 #97 |
| −0.60 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.02 #38 |
| −0.052 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.041 #12 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% | Run rate | 53% #108 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| BCU | Season to date | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 0-1 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 6.0 / 73.0 | Points for / against | 32.4 / 17.6 |
| -67.0 | Avg margin | +14.8 |
| -23.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.9 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
Bethune-Cookman: last games
No games yet.
UCF: last games
No games yet.