Final
Sat, Sep 19, 10:30 PM ET
Arizona Stadium · 85° · wind 2 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NIU–Arizona) | 11–39 | – | 17–42 |
| Spread | Arizona −28.4 | Arizona −34.5 | Arizona −25 |
| Total | 50.5 | 50.5 | 59 |
| Arizona win chance | 96% | – | – |
Line moved from Arizona −35.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NIU +34.5 Won
Spread: 6.1 pts better than Vegas for Northern Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Arizona by 28.40%
Northern Illinois by 14+
3%
Northern Illinois by 1–13
15%
Arizona by 1–13
82%
Arizona by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NIU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.207 #135 | Offense EPA / play | +0.002 #64 |
| +0.126 #117 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.007 #49 |
| −6.7% #130 | Offense success rate | +3.5% #32 |
| +5.1% #124 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.0% #24 |
| −0.070 #116 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.081 #40 |
| −0.275 #131 | Passing EPA / play | −0.066 #82 |
| +0.159 #128 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.005 #53 |
| +0.074 #78 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.009 #56 |
| −9.9 #130 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.3 #71 |
| +6.1 #109 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.5 #19 |
| Situational | ||
| −17.7% #138 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.1% #52 |
| +4.4% #117 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.2% #76 |
| −1.15 #123 | Points per drive | −0.29 #74 |
| +0.92 #121 | Points per drive allowed | −0.44 #27 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.26 #124 | Line yards per rush | +0.45 #16 |
| +0.35 #126 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.17 #45 |
| +2.5% #123 | Runs stuffed at the line | −6.4% #11 |
| −4.6% #129 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.8% #22 |
| −0.4% #99 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.0% #15 |
| −3.3% #126 | Havoc created | +2.0% #24 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.106 #115 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.083 #110 |
| −0.038 #117 | Passing explosiveness | −0.037 #116 |
| −0.39 #104 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.11 #62 |
| −0.081 #28 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.155 #122 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% #32 | Run rate | 52% #116 |
| +3.2 #14 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.7 #48 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NIU | Season to date | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 13.8 / 36.2 | Points for / against | 32.4 / 16.6 |
| -22.5 | Avg margin | +15.8 |
| -3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 53.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
Northern Illinois: last 2 games
| L24-28 | |
| L0-40 |
Arizona: last 2 games
| L17-28 | |
| W35-7 |
