Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:30 PM ET
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · 69° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Colorado–Northwestern) | 20–28 | – | 7–41 |
| Spread | Northwestern −8.5 | Northwestern −3.5 | Northwestern −34 |
| Total | 48.1 | 47.5 | 48 |
| Northwestern win chance | 70% | – | – |
Line moved from Northwestern −4.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Northwestern −3.5 Won★ Over 47.5 Won
Spread: 5.0 pts better than Vegas for Northwestern (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Northwestern by 8.58%
Colorado by 14+
22%
Colorado by 1–13
34%
Northwestern by 1–13
36%
Northwestern by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Colorado | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.044 #37 | Offense EPA / play | +0.061 #31 |
| +0.041 #68 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.076 #80 |
| −2.7% #84 | Offense success rate | +0.3% #54 |
| −1.7% #27 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.4% #93 |
| −0.030 #71 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.124 #16 |
| +0.106 #27 | Passing EPA / play | +0.020 #51 |
| −0.082 #21 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.110 #104 |
| +0.130 #102 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.008 #45 |
| −2.0 #69 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #78 |
| −0.8 #49 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #30 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.6% #44 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.6% #75 |
| +2.0% #72 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.0% #71 |
| −0.16 #61 | Points per drive | −0.77 #101 |
| +0.41 #64 | Points per drive allowed | −0.35 #17 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.13 #72 | Line yards per rush | +0.20 #20 |
| −0.16 #29 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.45 #122 |
| −0.9% #45 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.4% #37 |
| +7.9% #2 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.4% #117 |
| +0.6% #83 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.1% #73 |
| +2.0% #24 | Havoc created | −0.2% #57 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.010 #72 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.040 #45 |
| +0.308 #5 | Passing explosiveness | +0.150 #21 |
| −0.31 #93 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.39 #17 |
| +0.286 #138 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.163 #21 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #77 | Run rate | 51% #75 |
| −16.9 #94 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.1 #82 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Colorado | Season to date | Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-0 |
| 18.6 / 25.4 | Points for / against | 33.0 / 16.8 |
| -6.8 | Avg margin | +16.2 |
| -8.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +17.8 |
| 68.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
Colorado: last 2 games
| W52-21 | |
| W14-13 |
Northwestern: last 1 games
| W34-18 |
