Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
TQL Stadium · 82° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Miami (OH)–Cincinnati) | 24–34 | – | 31–35 |
| Spread | Cincinnati −10.7 | Cincinnati −14.5 | Cincinnati −4 |
| Total | 58.0 | 50.5 | 66 |
| Cincinnati win chance | 75% | – | – |
Line moved from Cincinnati −15.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Miami (OH) +14.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Won
Spread: 3.8 pts better than Vegas for Miami (OH) (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 7.5 pts above Vegas (54% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Cincinnati by 10.76%
Miami (OH) by 14+
19%
Miami (OH) by 1–13
33%
Cincinnati by 1–13
42%
Cincinnati by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Miami (OH) | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.051 #37 | Offense EPA / play | +0.116 #18 |
| +0.089 #94 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.079 #90 |
| +1.4% #50 | Offense success rate | +3.9% #26 |
| +2.3% #86 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.7% #120 |
| −0.042 #106 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.167 #16 |
| +0.161 #18 | Passing EPA / play | +0.017 #47 |
| +0.123 #116 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.142 #124 |
| +0.118 #99 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.005 #54 |
| −3.4 #84 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.6 #32 |
| +8.9 #130 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.4 #44 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.8% #62 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.8% #47 |
| +2.7% #93 | Passing-down success allowed | +2.4% #92 |
| +0.53 #33 | Points per drive | +0.77 #27 |
| +1.27 #129 | Points per drive allowed | +0.14 #73 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.03 #83 | Line yards per rush | +0.55 #7 |
| +0.13 #90 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.41 #129 |
| −5.7% #17 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.1% #24 |
| +0.1% #65 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.7% #110 |
| −3.9% #19 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.9% #18 |
| −3.3% #125 | Havoc created | −0.8% #75 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.187 #136 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.121 #25 |
| +0.247 #23 | Passing explosiveness | −0.083 #125 |
| −0.49 #123 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.18 #28 |
| −0.012 #59 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.060 #38 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #99 | Run rate | 60% #29 |
| −15.3 #90 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −17.4 #100 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Miami (OH) | Season to date | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 4-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 26.8 / 29.2 | Points for / against | 33.8 / 23.2 |
| -2.4 | Avg margin | +10.6 |
| -4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.6 |
| 50.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.0 |
Miami (OH): last 2 games
| W45-7 | |
| L14-59 |
Cincinnati: last 2 games
| W62-10 | |
| W34-15 |
