Final
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET
Boone Pickens Stadium · 90° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Murray State–Oklahoma State) | 6–51 | – | 0–59 |
| Spread | Oklahoma State −44.5 | Oklahoma State −56.5 | Oklahoma State −59 |
| Total | 57.5 | 70.5 | 59 |
| Oklahoma State win chance | 100% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Murray State +56.5 Lost★ Under 70.5 Won
Spread: 12.0 pts better than Vegas for Murray State (sides with a gap this size have won 48% in the backtest). Total: 13.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oklahoma State by 44.50%
Murray State by 14+
0%
Murray State by 1–13
3%
Oklahoma State by 1–13
97%
Oklahoma State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Murray State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.351 | Offense EPA / play | −0.116 #118 |
| +0.442 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.022 #67 |
| −13.0% | Offense success rate | −0.6% #74 |
| +16.4% | Defense success rate allowed | −1.7% #42 |
| −0.243 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.000 #82 |
| −0.455 | Passing EPA / play | −0.189 #120 |
| +0.445 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.060 #34 |
| +0.370 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.083 #85 |
| −23.8 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.9 #79 |
| +20.1 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #73 |
| Situational | ||
| −13.6% | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.4% #67 |
| +11.7% | Passing-down success allowed | −5.5% #14 |
| −3.27 | Points per drive | −0.56 #92 |
| +2.72 | Points per drive allowed | −0.06 #58 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.78 | Line yards per rush | +0.13 #65 |
| +1.26 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #59 |
| +6.0% | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.6% #85 |
| −7.3% | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.3% #73 |
| +2.6% | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.8% #21 |
| −4.8% | Havoc created | −1.1% #80 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.048 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.015 #82 |
| −0.038 | Passing explosiveness | −0.062 #122 |
| −0.76 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.19 #26 |
| +0.074 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.214 #133 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% | Run rate | 53% #105 |
| −17.7 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +2.8 #15 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Murray State | Season to date | Oklahoma State |
|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 0-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 0-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 7.0 / 48.5 | Points for / against | 37.2 / 19.8 |
| -41.5 | Avg margin | +17.5 |
| -2.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 49.7 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 70.8 |
Murray State: last 1 games
| L14-38 |
