Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium · 71° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (MTSU–Kansas) | 16–38 | – | 0–55 |
| Spread | Kansas −22.1 | Kansas −21.5 | Kansas −55 |
| Total | 54.9 | 51.5 | 55 |
| Kansas win chance | 92% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kansas −21.5 Won★ Over 51.5 Won
Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for Kansas (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Kansas by 22.11%
Middle Tennessee by 14+
7%
Middle Tennessee by 1–13
22%
Kansas by 1–13
69%
Kansas by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| MTSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.109 #111 | Offense EPA / play | +0.036 #49 |
| +0.124 #109 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.018 #51 |
| −5.4% #117 | Offense success rate | +1.1% #55 |
| +6.5% #128 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.0% #15 |
| −0.031 #98 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.023 #75 |
| −0.186 #119 | Passing EPA / play | −0.015 #64 |
| +0.089 #103 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.049 #34 |
| +0.152 #101 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.124 #93 |
| −10.5 #126 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #70 |
| +6.8 #115 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.3 #82 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.1% #114 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.4% #51 |
| +0.9% #82 | Passing-down success allowed | −6.1% #11 |
| −1.41 #130 | Points per drive | +0.16 #54 |
| +0.78 #112 | Points per drive allowed | −0.01 #63 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.14 #59 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #44 |
| +0.27 #113 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.53 #10 |
| −2.5% #57 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.5% #19 |
| −2.7% #110 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.7% #16 |
| −1.4% #68 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.3% #105 |
| −4.1% #132 | Havoc created | +0.5% #48 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.047 #99 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.090 #37 |
| −0.016 #112 | Passing explosiveness | +0.319 #14 |
| −0.50 #120 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.36 #100 |
| −0.056 #42 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.137 #115 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #135 | Run rate | 57% #51 |
| −22.4 #136 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.8 #86 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| MTSU | Season to date | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-3 | Away | 0-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 20.8 / 28.0 | Points for / against | 36.0 / 17.0 |
| -7.2 | Avg margin | +19.0 |
| -3.0 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.9 |
| 55.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Middle Tennessee: last 4 games
| L13-23 | |
| W27-20 | |
| L26-28 | |
| W38-14 |
Kansas: last 3 games
| L17-24 | |
| L21-38 | |
| W51-6 |
